The Role of Increasing CO2 Levels and Ocean and Vegetation Feedbacks in Periam Global Warming, and Comparisons of Simulations with Observations

摘要ATM-9815980 Kutzbach，John E.威斯康星大学标题：二氧化碳水平增加以及海洋和植被反馈在二叠纪全球变暖中的作用，以及模拟与观测的比较对地球历史的研究表明，过去的大气候变化与生物圈、深海、大型大陆冰盖、和地球的碳循环。 该奖项支持一个旨在使用大气、陆地表面、陆地生态系统、海洋、冰盖和碳循环组成部分的数值模型研究过去气候变化的项目。 具体而言，该项目将侧重于地质记录中最近一次重大冰川消退和重大全球变暖的时期，这发生在大约2.8亿年前的二叠纪。 在二叠纪，大的气候变化可能是由陆-海分布和地形的构造相关变化引起的。 通过规定这些气候“外部”强迫的变化，就有可能使用模型来模拟气候的直接响应，并研究涉及生物圈、水圈或冰冻圈的潜在反馈机制，这些机制可能放大或抑制直接响应。 将过去作为研究大气候变化的“试验场”的巨大优势是，可以将陆地和海洋环境的地质记录与模拟结果进行比较，以评估模型在非常不同的边界条件下的准确性，并测试我们对基本气候过程的理解。 大气中CO2浓度的巨大变化可能在二叠纪全球变暖事件中发挥了作用，并将成为该项目的重要关注点。 同样重要的是使用气候系统/地球系统模型来评估洋流、海洋热输送和植被的重大变化在放大变暖趋势方面可能发挥的作用。 芝加哥大学已经开发的二叠纪气候指标数据集将用于评估结果。这项工作的结果将有助于更好地了解过去大规模气候变化的机制，并将有助于评估正在开发的模型的准确性，以估计可能的大规模气候变化。

AbstractATM-9815980Kutzbach, John E.University of WisconsinTitle: The Role of Increasing CO2 Levels and Ocean and Vegetation Feedbacks in Permian Global Warming, and Comparisons of Simulations with ObservationsStudies of the Earth's history show that the large climate changes of the past have been associated with equally large changes in the biosphere, the deep ocean, the large continental ice sheets, and the Earth's carbon cycle. This award supports a project designed to study climate changes of the past using numerical models of the atmosphere, the land surface, terrestrial ecosystems, oceans, ice-sheets, and components of the carbon cycle. Specifically, the project will focus on the most recent period of major deglaciation and major global warming in the geologic record, which occurred during the Permian, about 280 million years ago. In the Permian, large climate changes were probably initiated by tectonically-related changes in land-ocean distribution and topography. By prescribing changes in these "external" forcings of climate, it is possible to use models to simulate the climate's direct response, and to study potential feedback mechanisms involving the biosphere, the hydrosphere, or the cryosphere that might amplify or dampen the direct response. The great advantage of using the past as a "testing ground" for studies of large climate change is that geological records from terrestrial and marine environments can be compared with the results of the simulations to evaluate the accuracy of the models under very different boundary conditions, as well as to test our understanding of fundamental climate processes. Large changes in the atmospheric concentration of the CO2 probably played a role in the Permian global warming event and will be an important focus of the project. Equally important will be the use of climate system/earth systems models to evaluate the role that major changes in ocean currents, ocean heat transport, and vegetation may have played in amplifying the warming trend. The data sets of Permian climate indicators already developed at the University of Chicago will be used to evaluate the results. The results of this work will lead to improved understanding of the mechanisms involved in large climate changes of the past and will help assess the accuracy of models being developed to estimate possible large