Evaluating the Impact of Demand Data and Demand Forecasting on Costs in a Supply Chain

小行星9872483 这笔赠款为分析需求数据、需求预测和协调对供应链成本的影响提供资金。与大多数以前的工作不同，本研究假设客户需求的分布是未知的，预测是用来估计分布的形状和参数。 给定预测技术，供应链中预期成本的界限或近似值将被确定。 这些成本将与已知需求分布假设下的预期成本进行比较。 这些费用之间的差额将被用作衡量需求数据的价值和预测的影响。 还将评估数据量、预测技术和需求过程形式的影响。这项研究还将着眼于协调库存控制的影响。 三个层次的协调将被建模：（1）没有信息共享，没有协调，（2）信息共享，但没有协调，（3）信息共享和协调。将对这三种模式的预期成本进行比较，以评估信息共享和协调工作对供应链成本的影响。此外，这些成本将用于确定供应链的哪些阶段从协调中获益最大。 这一分析的结果将提供有用的洞察力的需求信息的价值和需求预测对供应链成本的影响。 这些模型特别适用于新产品或时尚产品，即，这些项目的需求信息很少，因此传统的已知需求分布的假设是不合适的。 此外，分析将评估供应链协调的价值，并提供方法，在其中供应链的成员可以被诱导参与协调工作。 鉴于零售商和制造商之间的协调举措越来越受欢迎，这项研究将提供重要的见解信息和协调的真实的好处。

9872483Ryan This grant provides funding for an analysis of the impact of demand data, demand forecasting and coordination on costs in a supply chain. Unlike most previous work, this research assumes that the distribution of customer demand is unknown and that forecasting is used to estimate the shape and parameters of the distribution. Given the forecasting technique, bounds or approximations for the expected costs in the supply chain will be determined. These costs will be compared with the expected costs under the assumption of known demand distribution. The difference between these costs will be used as a measure of the value of demand data and the impact of forecasting. The impact of the quantity of data, the forecasting technique, and the form of the demand process will also be evaluated. This research will also look at the impact of coordinated inventory control. Three levels of coordination will be modeled: (1) no information sharing and no coordination, (2) information sharing but no coordination, and (3) information sharing and coordination. The expected costs for these three models will be compared to evaluate the impact of information sharing and coordination efforts on costs in the supply chain. In addition, these costs will be used to determine which stages of the supply chain benefit most from coordination. The results of this analysis will provide useful insights on the value of demand information and the impact of demand forecasting on costs in the supply chain. These models are particularly applicable to new products or fashion items, i.e., items for which there is little demand information available, and thus the traditional assumption of known demand distribution is inappropriate. In addition, the analysis will evaluate the value of supply chain coordination and provide methods in which members of the supply chain can be induced to participate in coordination efforts. Given the increasing popularity of coordination initiatives between retailers and manufacturers, this research will provide important insights into the real benefits of information and coordination.