Interaction of Regional Climate Modes: A Global Hypermode?

barnett, tim，加州大学圣地亚哥分校：区域气候模态的相互作用：一个全球超模态？拟议的工作旨在验证这样一种观点，即存在一个或多个由相互作用的区域气候特征或“模态”组成的全球气候变率“超模态”。根据全球其他地区气候变化之间的相互作用，寻求一个能够解释观测到的区域气候年代际变化的连贯的物理框架。挑战在于描述众所周知的区域气候特征（季风、ENSO、北太平洋涛动）与控制这些相互作用的物理过程之间存在的统计关系。统计关系或年代际调制的非平稳性使这很难做到。三种不同模式的一组长期全球气候模式模拟，包括/不包括完整的海洋物理，将作为这项研究的基本数据源。这项工作的主要目的是为了可靠的气候预测，需要在全球背景下理解区域气候变化。这项工作很重要，因为它将使人们更好地了解导致气候变率的过程。

AbstractATM-9901110Barnett, TimUniversity of California, San DiegoTitle: Interaction of Regional Climate Modes: A Global Hypermode?The proposed work aims to test the idea that there are one or more global 'hypermodes' of climate variability composed of mutually interacting regional climate features or 'modes'. A coherent physical framework that can explain the observed decadal variation in regional climate, is sought in terms of the interactions between climate changes in other parts of the globe. The challenge is to describe the statistical relationships that exist between well known regional climate features (the Monsoon, ENSO, North Pacific Oscillation) and physical processes that govern these interactions. The nonstationary character of the statistical relations or interdecadal modulation makes this difficult. A set of long global climate model simulations from three different models, with/without full ocean physics, will serve as the basic data source for the study. The main thrust of this work is that for reliable climate prediction, regional climate changes need to be understood in a global context. The work is important because it will yield an enhanced understanding of the processes contributing to climate variability.