Globalization's Impact in the Third World Before 1940

国际和平研究所之前对截至1940年的一个世纪内大西洋经济的研究证实，如果认真对待历史，如果我们像贸易理论所表明的那样，关注要素和大宗商品价格，而不是简单地关注贸易流动和GDP总量，那么今天的全球化辩论可以得到更好的理解。目前的建议将利用第三世界26个地区非常接近建立的要素和大宗商品价格数据库-其中一些最早始于1820年，以探索拉丁美洲、地中海和亚洲在20世纪下半叶工业化繁荣之前长期经济变化的决定因素。该项目的议程将是重新审视W·阿瑟·刘易斯和其他经济学家在20世纪40年代和50年代撰写的论文，这些论文现在以90年代改进的理论为指导，并以大量扩充、扩展和改进的历史数据库为指导。该项目将探索大约1870至1940年间第三世界与欧洲和北美工业领袖之间的全球大宗商品市场一体化程度。它将把1940年前第三世界贸易条件变化的来源分解为中心和外围之间运输成本显著下降的原因，以及“世界市场”的需求和供应原因。20世纪关于初级产品生产国面临的贸易条件演变的辩论可以追溯到近50年前，当时经济学家利用糟糕的大宗商品价格证据，为第三世界的产业保护建立了理由。该项目应利用样本中所有26个国家的一套具体国家的贸易权重，建立一个国内市场报价的商品价格数据库，从而提高这一贸易条件辩论的质量。此外，通过使用计量经济学和一般均衡模型来探讨价格冲击对这些第三世界国家的影响--包括对其要素收入分配的影响，从而对对各种政策选择的态度的影响--将进一步阐明贸易条件辩论。该项目还将包括对第三世界要素供应反应的估计，特别是对劳动力和土地的反应，以及对理解第三世界长期经济表现所必需的比较评估。该项目的这一部分将把长期劳动力供应分解为当地的人口结构反应和从劳动力“过剩”到第三世界劳动力稀缺地区的跨境移民--流动至少与从欧洲到新世界的大规模移民一样大。它还将包括远离大西洋经济的全球金融资本市场一体化的测试，大西洋经济是在这一提议之前唯一进行过此类测试的地方。最后，该项目将使用新的证据来探索自14世纪以来欧洲内部中心与边缘之间、16世纪末以来印度与欧洲之间、以及18世纪初以来中国与欧洲之间生活水平差距的演变。该项目的这一部分将使人们有可能对长期经济变化的决定因素有更深刻的理解。

The PI's previous research on the Atlantic economy during the century up to 1940 has confirmed that globalization debates today can be better understood if history is taken seriously and if, as trade theory suggests, we look at factor and commodity prices, rather than simply at trade flows and GDP aggregates. The current proposal will exploit a very-nearly-established data base of factor and commodity prices from 26 regions in the Third World -some starting as early as 1820, to explore the determinants of long run economic change in Latin America, the Mediterranean and Asia prior to the industrialization boom in the second half of the 20' century. The agenda will be to take a new look at the theses of W. Arthur Lewis and other economists writing in the 1940s and 1950s, now guided by the improved theory of the 1990s as well as by a vastly augmented, extended and improved historical data base.The project will explore the extent of global commodity market integration between the Third World and the industrial leaders in Europe and North America from about 1870 to 1940. It will decompose the sources of terms of trade changes in the pre-1940 Third World into that accounted for by the spectacular decline in transport costs between center and periphery and that accounted for by demand and supply in "world" markets. The 20th century debate over the evolution of the terms of trade facing primary product producers goes back almost fifty years when economists used poor commodity price evidence to establish a case for industrial protection in the Third World. The project should raise the quality of this terms of trade debate by the construction of a commodity price data base quoted in home markets using a set of country-specific trade weights for all 26 countries in the sample. Also, by using econometrics and general equilibrium models to explore the impact of the price shocks on these Third World countries -- including on their factor income distributions and thus on attitudes towards various policy options - additional light will be shed on the terms of trade debate. The project will also include the estimation Third World factor supply responses -- especially that of labor and land - and a comparative assessment essential to any understanding of long run economic performance in the Third World. This part of the project will decompose the long run labor supply into local demographic responses and across-border migration from labor "surplus" to labor scarce areas in the Third World -- flows that were at least as big as the mass migrations from Europe to the New World. It will also include tests of the global integration of financial capital markets distant from the Atlantic economy, the only place where such tests have been performed prior to this proposal.Finally, the project will use new evidence to explore the evolution of living standard gaps between center and periphery within Europe since the 14th century, between India and Europe since the late 16th century, and between China and Europe since the early 18th century. This part of the project will make it possible to develop a much sharper understanding of the determinants of economic change in the very long run.