GLOBEC: Physical Influences on California Current Salmon

GLOBEC NEP计划将继续在加州海流系统（CCS）的两个部分进行年度长期观测（2D），沿着中尺度（3D）和两个现场年的过程研究。 通过这些研究，该计划旨在定量了解物理和生物过程如何驱动浮游动物和鲑鱼种群，时间尺度从几十年到每周，空间尺度从流域到中尺度。 建模需要整合所涉及的许多学科，变化的尺度和生态组织的水平，既作为科学过程的一部分，也作为预测未来气候变化对这些人口的影响的前瞻性工具。 作为GLOBEC计划的一部分，PI将：（1）在CCS鲑鱼个体的生物能量模型中增加游泳能力，并将其嵌入GLOBEC和CoOP物理模型，以解释早期海洋生命中鲑鱼的分布、生长和生存，（2）描述众所周知但知之甚少的海洋环境对鲑鱼大小结构的影响对CCS鲑鱼种群动态的影响，和（3）回顾性评估CCS鲑鱼产卵和补充数据和物理数据之间的关系，从几十年尺度到中尺度的CCS。 此外，PI将使用数字。实验来测试对观察到的分布的解释，看看它们是否符合生物能量和游泳速度的限制，并评估它们对食物和捕食者分布的影响。 个体水平的分析和现有的数据表明，环境对生长的影响不仅影响生存，而且还影响成熟时间表，这种影响对人口和集合种群动态和回顾性的后果尚不清楚。 GLOBEC NEP关于该生态系统和鲑鱼种群对气候变化的反应的结论将需要与过去的数据保持一致。 PI将通过将十年和年度尺度与季节性、中尺度机制联系起来，使用补充和产卵数据（比渔获量更少混淆），并考虑淡水条件，来完善其回顾性结果。随着GLOBEC NEP从现在起的4年或5年内完成，将整合建模和回顾性研究以提供前瞻性总结。

The GLOBEC NEP Program will continue annual long term observations (2D) in two parts of the California Current System (CCS), along with mesoscale (3D) and process studies in two field years. Through those studies the program aims to achieve a quantitative understanding of how physical and biological processes drive zooplankton and salmon populations, on time scales ranging from multi-decadal to weekly, and spatial scales from the basin to mesoscale. Modeling is required to integrate over the many disciplines involved, scales of variability, and levels of ecological organization, both as a part of the scientific process, and as a prospective tool to predict the effects of future climate change on these populations. As part of the GLOBEC Program the PIs will: (1) add a swimming capability to their bioenergetic model of individual CCS salmon and embed that in GLOBEC and CoOP physical models to explain salmon distribution, growth and survival in early ocean life, (2) describe implications for CCS salmon population dynamics of well known, but poorly understood effects of the ocean environment on salmon size structure, and (3) assess retrospectively relationships between CCS salmon spawner and recruit data and physical data from the CCS from multidecadal scales to the mesoscale. In addition the PIs will use numerical. experiments to test explanations of observed distributions, to see whether they meet bioenergetic and swimming speed constraints, and to evaluate their consequences regarding distributions of food and predators. Individual level analyses and existing data indicate environmental influences on growth affect not just survival, but also maturity schedules, an effect whose consequences for population and metapopulation dynamics and for retrospective are not known. GLOBEC NEP conclusions regarding the response of this ecosystem and salmon populations to climate change will require consistency with past data. The PIs will refine their retrospective results by relating decadal and annual scales to seasonal, mesoscale mechanisms, using recruitment and spawner data (which are less confounded than catch) and accounting for freshwater conditions. As GLOBEC NEP reaches completion 4 or 5 years from now, the modeling and retrospective studies will be integrated to provide a prospective summary.