Modeling Refugee and Internally Displaced Flows

可能会发生什么事件，导致某人考虑放弃她/他的家和财产，逃往其他地方寻求庇护，无论是在她/他的国家之内还是之外？出于对迫害的合理恐惧而采取这种行动并在国外寻求庇护的人，根据国际法被承认为难民。那些在山区、森林中寻求避难或在本国境内与亲人团聚的人被认为是境内流离失所者。该项目探讨难民和国内流离失所者流动的原因。该项目涉及四个问题：1)一个国家有可能产生难民和国内流离失所者的特点是什么？2)我们如何区分产生更多境内流离失所者的国家和产生更多难民的国家？3)如何解释难民更多地流向一个边境国家而不是另一个国家？4)产生“自愿移民”流动的因素和过程与产生“强迫移徙”流动的因素和过程是否有区别？也就是说，经济因素是否影响难民和境内流离失所者(R-IdP)的流动？关于这一主题的文献是跨学科的，因此跨学科界限的交流有限。因此，没有全面的研究试图探索散布在文献中的许多假设的有用性。此外，关于这一专题的工作在很大程度上是具体和描述性的：很少有比较案例研究，相对有限的理论驱动的研究，很少有大的统计分析。这项研究通过创建一套全面的、理论驱动的假说，并使用全球数据集来检验它们，做出了重大贡献。像许多研究移民的学者一样，调查者采用了一个简单的成本收益框架来研究这些流动。关于第一个问题的主要论点是，人们感到自己的生命受到暴力威胁的国家比没有受到暴力威胁的国家更有可能产生难民。这并不是一个新奇的论点，也不是特别令人惊讶。然而，令人惊讶的是，很少有难民和国内流离失所者流动的原因分析没有提出上述额外的问题，而且没有一项分析试图检验假设的答案。关于第二个问题，调查员认为，针对移民和移民的政策、周边国家的暴力程度以及边境地形将把那些相对于难民产生高水平国内流离失所者的国家与那些产生相对于国内流离失所者高水平难民的国家区分开来。除了移民政策，这些同样的变量应该有助于确定难民在哪个国家寻求庇护。最后，通过将相对工资的测量纳入解决第二和第三个问题的回归中，调查员将能够回答第四个问题。调查员为1965-1998年期间的全球样本汇编了一个数据集。同时考虑了效度和信度问题。最后，使用相关的统计技术对假设进行了检验。这个项目增强了我们对这个主题的理解，并产生了一个对许多对这个主题感兴趣的学者有用的数据集。

What events might transpire that would lead someone to consider abandoning her/his home and possessions, and take flight to seek refuge elsewhere, either within or outside of her/his country? People who, owing to a reasonable fear of persecution, take such action and seek refuge abroad are recognized under international law as refugees. Those who seek refuge in mountains, forests, or with relatives within their own borders are recognized as internally displaced persons. The project explores the etiology of flows of refugees and internally displaced persons.The project addresses four questions:I) What characteristics make a country likely to produce refugees and internally displaced persons? 2) How can we distinguish countries that produce greater numbers of internally displaced persons from those that produce greater numbers of refugees? 3) What can explain greater flows of refugees to one bordering country rather than another? 4) Are the factors and processes that produce `voluntary migrant' flows distinguishable from those that produce `forced migration' flows? That is, do economic factors influence refugee and internally displaced person (R-IDP) flows?The literature on this topic is interdisciplinary, and thus suffers from limited communication across disciplinary boundaries. As such, no comprehensive study exists that seeks to explore the usefulness of the many hypotheses scattered throughout the literature. In addition, the work on this topic is largely idiographic and descriptive: there are few comparative case studies, a relatively limited number of theoretically driven studies, and very few large-n, statistical analyses. This investigation makes a significant contribution by creating a comprehensive, theoretically driven set of hypotheses, and examining them using a global data set.Like many scholars who work on migration, the investigator employs a simple cost-benefit framework for studying these flows. The major argument with respect to the first question is that countries where people feel that their lives are threatened by violence have a greater likelihood of producing refugees than countries where this is not the case. This is not a novel argument, nor is it particularly surprising. Yet, what is surprising is that few analyses of the etiology of refugee and internally displaced person flows do not move on to ask the additional questions listed above, and none of them have sought to test hypothetical answers. With respect to the second question, the investigator argues that policies toward both emigration and immigration, the level of violence in surrounding countries, and the border terrain will separate those countries that produce a high level of internally displaced relative to refugees from those that produce a high level of refugees relative to internally displaced. These same variables, save emigration policy, should help determine which country refugees seek asylum in. Finally, by including measures of relative wages in the regressions that address questions two and three, the investigator will be able to address question four.The investigator assembles a dataset for a global sample covering the period 1965-1998. Attention is given to both validity and reliability issues. Finally, the hypotheses are examined using relevant statistical techniques.This project enhances our understanding of the topic and produces a dataset that will be of use to numerous scholars interested in the topic.