Doctoral Dissertation Research in Political Science: Rational Expectations, International Trade, and Interstate Conflict

政治学博士论文研究：理性预期、国际贸易和州际冲突

• 批准号: 0241877
• 负责人: Will Moore
• 金额: $ 0.55万
• 依托单位: Florida State University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2003
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2003-01-15 至 2003-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0241877&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Doctoral; Dissertation; Research; Political; Science

International conflict scholars often focus on the farsighted behavior of states involved in military conflict. Those analyzing the relationship between international trade and interstate conflict argue that greater interdependence among a pair of states increases the costs of military conflict, reducing the incentive for state leaders. to engage in conflicts with trade partners. But until recently researchers did not attribute the same level of strategic sophistication to the economic actors involved. Morrow (1999) suggests a rational expectations approach to the study of trade and conflict. He argues that traders are rational actors who develop expectations about interstate conflict from the political relationships between states. Other scholars find partial empirical support for this claim.This Doctoral Dissertation Research Support project advances the study of trade and conflict further by incorporating rational expectations of conflict into a gravity model of bilateral trade flows. The Ph.D. student examines the question of how conflict influences international trade both directly when violence occurs, and indirectly through the expectations of conflict that trading firms develop. In this proposal, bilateral trade levels are the result of market behavior by firms, but conflict between or within states influences the economic forces that determine trade. The student uses the gravity equation to explain trade flows based on purely market forces and argues that conflict affects these market forces, changing the level of bilateral trade in the process. The idea that conflict affects trade is then extended by assuming that firms develop rational expectations about future conflicts. The student argues that expectations of conflict will also affect the market for traded goods. Moreover, he extends this argument to suggest that factors associated with recurrent conflict between the same states will increase expectations of a future conflict. This results in hypotheses about the effects of rivalry, conflict over territory, and imposed regime changes on trade between states and the student develops a research design that tests these hypotheses on post-war bilateral trade.Broader ImpactThis project has more general implications for those in the economics/security discipline and those in policy-making circles. A rational expectations approach to the study of trade and conflict could have significant implications for the liberal-trade brings peace proposition.

国际冲突学者通常专注于参与军事冲突的国家的远视行为。 那些分析国际贸易与州际冲突之间关系的人认为，一对国家之间的相互依存更大会增加军事冲突的成本，从而减少了国家领导人的动机。与贸易伙伴发生冲突。 但是直到最近，研究人员还没有将相同水平的战略成熟程度归因于所涉及的经济参与者。 莫罗（Morrow，1999）提出了对贸易和冲突研究的合理期望方法。 他认为，交易者是理性的行为者，他们从国家之间的政治关系中发展了对州际冲突的期望。 其他学者发现了对这一主张的部分经验支持。该博士学位论文研究支持项目通过将冲突的理性期望纳入双边贸易流量的重力模型，进一步推进了贸易和冲突的研究。 博士学生研究了冲突在暴力发生时如何直接影响国际贸易的问题，并间接地通过贸易公司发展的冲突期望。 在此提案中，双边贸易水平是企业市场行为的结果，但是州之间或内部之间的冲突影响了决定贸易的经济力量。学生使用重力方程来解释基于纯市场力量的贸易流，并认为冲突会影响这些市场力量，改变了过程中的双边贸易水平。 然后，通过假设企业对未来冲突产生合理期望来扩展冲突影响贸易的想法。 学生认为，冲突的期望也会影响交易商品的市场。 此外，他扩展了这一论点，以表明与同一州之间反复冲突相关的因素将增加对未来冲突的期望。 这导致了关于竞争，领土冲突的影响以及对国家和学生之间贸易的政权变化的假设，该研究设计对战后双边贸易进行了测试，该研究对经济学/安全纪律和政策制定中的人具有更大的一般影响。 对贸易和冲突研究的理性期望方法可能会对自由贸易产生重大影响，从而带来和平主张。