Analysis of Lifeline Damages and Economic Impacts of an Earthquake: Development of an Integrated Economic-Engineering Assessment Model

建议：CMS -0099724 PI：Geoffrey Hewings机构：伊利诺伊大学厄巴纳-香槟分校日期：2001年5月25日摘要CMS-0099724“地震对生命线的破坏和经济影响分析：综合经济-工程评估模型的开发研究将由美国的同事进行。（伊利诺伊大学/纽约州立大学@布法罗分校）和日本（中央电力工业研究院），三年多来，他们一直在为两国合作开发区域和区域间经济影响和预测模型。将建立一个工程模型，以估计地震的间接影响，并模拟恢复活动及其全系统的影响。 该项目将建立在一套最近完成的模型基础上，包括一个评估城市地区生命线损失的工程模型和一个估计地震在城市、区域和区域间背景下的间接影响和后果的经济模型。 在此基础上，重点分析了生命线系统改造策略评价、应急管理方案敏感性分析和生命线设施抗震寿命周期评价等政策含义。 所构建的综合模型还将提供区域间经济影响的传播路径、物理损害与经济影响之间的关系以及以生产年表为重点的经济影响的时间序列分析等信息。 区域间的重点来自城市地区;对外部市场的依赖日益增加;城市地区是投入的来源和城市地区生产的商品和服务的消费目的地。 主要的贡献将在于如何将不同的工程和经济模式模式结合起来，可以从其他国家的经验中学习到的观点，以及确定需要探讨的关键联系，以协助恢复工作。

Proposal: CMS - 0099724PI: Geoffrey HewingsInstitution: University of Illinois at Urbana-ChampaignDate: May 25, 2001ABSTRACT CMS0099724 "Analysis of Lifeline Damages and Economic Impacts of an Earthquake: Development of an Integrated Economic-Engineering Assessment ModelResearch will be carried out by the colleagues in the U.S. (University of Illinois/SUNY @ Buffalo) and Japan (Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry), who have been collaborating on the development of regional and interregional economic impact and forecasting models for both countries for over three years.An integrated economic-engineering model will be cdonstructed to estimate the indirect impacts of an earthquake and to simulate recovery activities and its system-wide effects. The project will build on a set of recently completed models, including an engineering model for assessing the lifeline damages in an urban area and economic models for estimating the indirect impacts and effects of an earthquake in urban, regional, and interregional contexts. Attention is directed to the integration of the engineering model and economic models, systematically connecting time, space, and the damages between two different modeling schem3s.Once completed, analysis will focus on the following policy implications: a) evaluation of retrofit strategies on lifeline systems; b) sensitivity analysis of emergency management plans; and c) life cycle assessment of lifeline facilities aganist earthquakes. The constructed integrated model will also provide the information on the propagation paths of the economic impacts in an interregional context, the relationshop between physical damages and economic impacts, and the time series analysis of the economics impacts focusing on production chronologies. The interregional focus derives from urban areas; increasing dependence on external marketsfor sources of inputs and as destinations for the consumption of goods and services produced in the urban area. The major contributions will lie in the way in which different engineering and economic modeling paradigms are integrated, the perspectives that can be learned from experience in other countries and the identification of crwitical linkages that needs to be explored to assist in recovery efforts.