Dynamic-Stochastic Modeling of Earthquake Rupture and Strong Ground Motion

摘要EAR 0106823（PH #5x）提案标题：地震破裂和强地面运动的动态随机建模PI：Greg Beroza斯坦福大学在这项研究中，我们将开发一个同时满足以下条件的震源模型：（1）先前推导出的断层滑动分布和变化的随机模型，与过去地震的观测结果一致;（2）一种简单的震源物理模型，通过应力降和断裂能的分布来表征动态断裂。 其结果将是一个地震模型，是一致的观测地震源和破裂动力学。 这将提供一个完整的描述的震源，包括在滑动分布，破裂速度，上升时间，和形状的滑动速度函数在一个自洽的方式的变化。 我们将使用这个随机-动态震源模型来预测场景地震的强地面运动的水平和变化。 使用随机源描述和输出，包括一套可能的地面运动时程，将自然地合并与概率的方法，通常采用地震危险性分析。

Abstract for proposal EAR0106823 (PH #5x)Title: Dynamic-Stochastic Modeling of Earthquake Rupture and Strong Ground Motion PI: Greg Beroza Stanford UniversityIn this study we will develop an earthquake source model that simultaneously satisfies: (1) a previously derived stochastic model of the distribution and variability of slip on the fault consistent with observations of past earthquakes and (2) a simple physical model of the earthquake source that characterizes dynamic rupture by the distribution of stress drop and fracture energy. The result will be a model for earthquakes that is consistent with both observations of the earthquake source and rupture dynamics. This will provide a complete description of the earthquake source that includes variability in the slip distribution, rupture velocity, rise time, and shape of the slip velocity function in a self-consistent way. We will use this stochastic-dynamic source model to predict the level and variability of strong ground motion for scenario earthquakes. The use of a stochastic source description and output that consists of a suite of possible ground motion time histories, will merge naturally with the probabilistic approach that is usually adopted for seismic hazard analysis.