Influence of Ocean Surface Conditions on Regional Climate of the Northern North Atlantic.

拟议的研究将对北大西洋表面温度异常（ssta）对从巴芬岛到挪威海的一个区域的气候和大气环流变异的影响进行模拟和基于观测的调查。将对1982年10月至1984年9月在格陵兰岛西部和1967年10月至1969年9月在格陵兰岛东部发生的已知的高持续性负海温进行中尺度模式模拟。这些事件中的每一个都可能与十年周期的海洋ssta有关，将使用建模方法来评估海洋对区域温度、降水和大气环流变异（包括风暴路径移动）的影响。该模式的结果将与同期海洋正暖异常的海温sta敏感性实验进行比较。第三项模式敏感性研究将采用冬季和夏季为期一个月的模拟，以调查海温对风暴穿过挪威海进入北极的运动的作用，以及同时亚极低压位于冰岛以东的趋势。随附的观测分析将侧重于评估北大西洋暖海温池的年代际变化的气候影响，特别是从1920-1940年，以及1970年之前的其他冷事件。通过检查格陵兰岛东部和拉布拉多附近地区异常现象的影响，该研究希望确定之前在戴维斯海峡发现的极端持续异常现象是独特的还是普遍的。旋转主成分分析将用于确定北大西洋ssta和大西洋风暴路径之间所有季节的联系。风暴路径数据将用于进一步评估北大西洋和北极振荡之间的联系，以及评估风暴路径向东移动如何影响海冰运输。计划的最终结果是全面评估海温对大西洋北极气候和环流变率的影响，并评估影响大西洋和北极盆地的主要大西洋风暴路径。这项研究还将使人们能够估计北大西洋北部气旋活动异常的可预测性。这些结果将有助于我们了解目前正在影响北大西洋和北极地区的大变化背景下的高纬度气候和海洋-大气相互作用。

The proposed research will carry out a modeling and observationally-based investigation of the impact of northern Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) on the climate and atmo-spheric circulation variability over a region extending from Baffin Island to the Norwegian Sea. Mesoscale model simulations are to be performed of known, high persistent, negative SSTAs that occurred from October 1982 to September 1984 to the west of Greenland and from October 1967 to September 1969 east of Greenland. Each of these events, which are potentially associated with decadal-period ocean SSTAs, will use a modeling approach to evaluate the oceanic impact on regional temperatures, precipitation and atmospheric circulation variability including storm track shifts. The model results will be compared with SSTA sensitivity experiments in which the ocean has a positive warm anomaly during the same periods. A third model sensitivity study will employ month-long simulations for winter and summer to investigate the roles of SSTAs on the movement of storms across the Norwegian Sea and into the Arctic, and the simultaneous tendency for the subpolar low to lie far east of Iceland. Accompanying observational analyses will focus on evaluating the climatic impacts of a decadally varying warm SST pool in the northern Atlantic, especially from 1920-1940, as well as other cold events prior to 1970. By examining the effects of the anomalies in regions east of Greenland and near Labrador, the research hopes to determine whether the previously identified extremely persistent anomalies in Davis Strait are unique or common. Rotated principal component analyses will be used in an effort to determine links dur-ing all seasons between northern Atlantic SSTAs and Atlantic storm tracks. Storm track data will be used to further evaluate links between the North Atlantic and Arctic oscillations, as well as to assess how eastward storm track shifts impact sea ice transport. The end result is planned to be a comprehensive evaluation of the SST impact on Atlantic Arctic climate and circulation variability and an assessment of the dominant Atlantic storm tracks that impact the Atlantic and Arctic basins. The research will also allow an estimate of the predictability of cyclone activity anoma-lies in the northern North Atlantic. These results will contribute to our understanding of high lati-tude climate and ocean-atmosphere interactions within the context of the large changes that are at present impacting the northern Atlantic and Arctic regions.