Doctoral Dissertation Research: Social-Environmental Dynamics of Malaria Eradication in Northwest Argentina Since 1900

病媒传染的传染病仍然是欠发达国家社会和经济发展的主要障碍。疟疾曾经被认为在热带以外的地区已经被根除，但它正在卷土重来，可能是由于全球气候变化的影响。本博士论文研究项目将量化20世纪阿根廷西北部疟疾发病率的变化空间格局，并将分析这些变化与环境、社会经济和土地利用变量的关系，以及提高对疟疾控制在阿根廷国家更广泛的政治和意识形态项目中的作用的理解。虽然疟疾的直接原因已得到充分了解，但更大的相关原因的相对作用是不确定的，并且是科学和政策辩论的主题。利用统计和空间分析，包括地理信息系统（GIS），这项研究将确定哪些因素最能解释疟疾发病率的变化以及疟疾减少率的变化。研究方法将整合实地工作、档案资源和基于gis的空间和统计分析。历史研究将是定量的和定性的。将通过使用阿根廷政府公共卫生机构的出版物记录疟疾发病率和死亡率的历史情况。社会经济、环境和土地使用数据将来自各种来源，包括十年一次的人口普查数据、遥感图像和数据、航空照片、农业普查、财产契约登记、地籍地图、地形图、土地分割程序和遗嘱认证记录。一旦收集了基线数据，将使用单变量和多变量回归分析来评估不同变量的相对权重，并分析疟疾发病率的区域和地方差异。地理信息系统将用于关联社会经济、环境、土地利用和疟疾发病率覆盖率。基于地理信息系统的空间统计分析和制图输出将用于查明加剧或减少疟疾发病率的具体土地使用做法。定性档案研究将侧重于解释参与抗疟疾运动的医生、公共卫生官员、政治家和官僚的言论和主张，特别是当它们涉及环境观念、经济发展和国家认同等问题时。这项研究将促进对发展中国家亚热带地区疟疾的人-环境相互作用的认识，特别是对阿根廷和南美洲南部的认识。南美洲南部的疾病生态学与人类健康以及人与环境相互作用的相关问题很少受到地理学家和其他社会科学家的关注。本研究将通过开发将地理信息系统空间分析工具与历史档案资源相结合的方法学方法来推进跨学科研究，以探索疾病、土地利用变化、社会经济发展和国家认同形成的相互关联性质。这项研究将促进对发展地理学和全球环境变化的广泛主题的理解，并将借鉴阿根廷的历史和当代经验，以确定土地利用变化，特别是通过砍伐森林和扩大灌溉，在促进疟疾发病率方面的重要性。诸如此类的人类-环境和历史地理研究有望对全球环境变化与疾病之间的关系提供一个重要的视角，并为当今控制病媒传播疾病提供经验教训。作为博士论文研究改进奖，该奖项还将提供支持，使有前途的学生建立一个强大的独立研究生涯。

Vector-borne infectious disease continues to be a major obstacle to social and economic development in less developed countries. Malaria was once thought to be eradicated from areas outside the tropics but it is making a major resurgence, possibly due to the impacts of global climate change. This doctoral dissertation research project will quantify changing spatial patterns of the incidence of malaria in Northwest Argentina during the 20th century, and it will analyze the relationship of these changes to environmental, socioeconomic, and land-use variables as well as improve understandings of the role of malaria control efforts in the Argentine state's broader political and ideological projects. Although the direct causes of malaria are well understood, the relative roles of larger associated causes are uncertain and are the subject of scientific and policy debate. Using statistical and spatial analysis, including geographic information systems (GIS), this research will determine which factors best explain variation in malaria incidence as well as variation in rates of malaria reduction. Research methods will integrate field work, archival sources, and GIS-based spatial and statistical analyses. Historical research will be both quantitative and qualitative in nature. Historical rates of malaria incidence and mortality will be documented through the use of publications of public health agencies of the Argentine government. Socioeconomic, environmental, and land-use data will be derived from various sources, including decennial census data, remote-sensing images and data, aerial photographs, agricultural censuses, property deed registers, cadastral maps, topographic maps, land division proceedings, and probate records. Once baseline data has been collected, univariate and multivariate regression analysis will be used to assess the relative weight of different variables and to analyze the regional and local differences in rates of malaria incidence. A GIS will be used to correlate socioeconomic, environmental, land use, and malaria-incidence coverages. GIS-based spatial statistical analysis and mapping output will be used to identify specific land-use practices that intensify or ameliorate malaria incidence. Qualitative archival research will focus on interpreting the rhetoric and claims of physicians, public health officials, politicians, and bureaucrats involved in the anti-malaria campaigns, especially as they pertain to issues of environmental perceptions, economic development, and national identity. This research will advance knowledge of the human-environmental interactions of malaria in the subtropics of developing countries in general and in Argentina and southern South America in specific. The related issues of disease ecology and human health and human-environment interaction in southern South America has received scant attention from geographers and other social scientists. This research will advance interdisciplinary research by developing methodological approaches that combine spatial analytical tools involving GIS with historical archival sources, to explore the interrelated nature of disease, land-use change, socioeconomic development, and national identity formation. This research will advance understanding in the broad themes of the geography of development and global environmental change, and it will draw on historical and contemporary experiences in Argentina to to determine the importance of land-use change, especially through deforestation and expansion of irrigation, in contributing to malaria incidence. Human-environmental and historical geographic studies such as this promise to contribute an important perspective on the relationship between global environmental change and disease, and to provide lessons for present-day control of vector-borne disease. As a Doctoral Dissertation Research Improvement award, this award also will provide support to enable a promising student to establish a strong independent research career.