New Methods In Storm Track Dynamics Theory

大气流动，如中纬度急流，通常是时间相关的，因此这些系统的综合稳定性理论必须处理背景流的时间变化对扰动的增长和结构的影响。时变不稳定性理论的另一个重要应用是关于切线性模型中初始误差的增长。在这个项目中，PI计划进一步发展他和他的团队为时变流动开发的非模式稳定性理论，以研究与高层短波的起源和维持有关的确定性稳定性问题。此外，PI将通过随机强迫研究天气尺度方差的统计平均结构和动力学。该项目有可能获得对具有时变气流的线性不稳定的新认识，这可能为风暴路径等中纬度天气现象提供新的理解。

Atmospheric flows such as mid-latitude jets are, in general, time-dependent so that a comprehensive stability theory for these systems must address the influence of temporal variation in the background flow on the growth and structure of perturbations. Another important application of time-dependent instability theory is in relation to the growth of initial errors in tangent linear models. In this project, the PI plans to pursue further the non-modal stability theory he and his group developed for time-varying flows to study deterministic stability problems related to the origin and maintenance of upper level short waves. In addition, the PI will investigate the statistical mean structure and dynamics of synoptic scale variance through stochastic forcing. The project has the potential of obtaining new insight into linear instability with time-varying flows that may provide new understanding for mid-latitude synoptic weather phenomena such as storm tracks.