CAREER: A Memory Processes Account of Judgment Under Uncertainty

判断和决策的一个基本组成部分是假设评估，这是一个嵌入在许多现实世界任务中的过程。例如，医生在做出诊断之前，可能会考虑各种疾病的可能性;机械师在投入时间和金钱进行维修之前，可能会评估各种原因导致汽车故障的可能性;审计师在追查错误来源之前，可能会评估各种会计错误来源的可能性。与假设评估过程相联系的是假设生成过程。假设生成涉及生成或回忆待评估的假设。假设生成是判断的一个同样重要的组成部分，因为生成过程的结果决定了哪些备择假设最终被决策者评估，本研究的目的是在主流记忆理论的背景下研究假设评估和假设生成方面的判断。特别是，这项研究将集中在测试和扩展记忆模型（Minerva-DM），以解释人们如何做出概率判断以及他们如何产生假设。本研究的总体目标是提供一个综合的理论的可能性判断和假设生成，同时占大多数的可能性判断现象的判断下的不确定性文献。

A fundamental component of judgment and decision making is hypothesis evaluation, a process that is embedded in many real-world tasks. For example, physicians presumably consider the likelihood of various diseases prior to issuing a diagnosis, mechanics presumably assess the likelihood of various causes of automobile failure before investing time and money in repairs, and auditors presumably evaluate the likelihood of various sources of accounting errors prior to pursuing the sources of errors. Tied to the process of hypothesis evaluation is the process of hypothesis generation. Hypothesis generation involves the generation, or recall, of the to-be-evaluated hypotheses. Hypothesis generation is an equally important component of judgment, as the outcome of the generation process determines which alternative hypotheses ultimately are evaluated by the decision maker.The purpose of the present research is to examine both the hypothesis evaluation and hypothesis generation aspects of judgment within the context of mainstream memory theory. In particular, this research will focus on testing and extending a memory model (Minerva-DM) to account for how people make judgments of probability and how they generate hypotheses. The overall goal of this research is to provide an integrative theory of likelihood judgment and hypothesis generation while accounting for most of the likelihood judgment phenomena in the judgment-under-uncertainty literature.