Longitudinal Effects of Technical Change, Capital Accumulation and Labor Market Dynamics on Deforestation in the Low-Income tropics

这项研究使用家庭数据来研究农业技术变化如何影响热带森林砍伐率。数据来自1995年至2001年期间在菲律宾进行的调查。数据的时间和覆盖范围为研究灌溉对农业生产和劳动力配置的直接和间接影响提供了机会，同时控制了样本农场的一些农学特征和重要的社会因素，如使用权安全。也有可能追踪从技术变革到就业、收入和生活在森林边缘的家庭所从事的活动变化的影响的因果链。该分析将有关农业发展、劳动力市场动态和环境管理的三个经济理论主体联系起来。具体目标包括：(1)评估动态背景下的劳动力雇佣和劳动力出售决策及其对资本形成、后续要素使用、劳动力市场参与和森林压力的影响；(2)确定交易和监管成本，以及使用权保障和特定地点要素生产率对劳动力雇佣和销售决策的重要性；(3)检验和修正样本中的损耗偏差，特别是受使用权安全和要素生产率的影响。结果将为评估关于贫穷和环境的相互竞争的理论提供经验基础，并将为关于增长和发展的分配影响及其对家庭行为重要方面的影响的更广泛辩论提供信息。结果应该对一系列社会和环境成果产生影响，包括经济发展、减贫、生物多样性保护和碳封存。

This research uses household data to study how technical change in agriculture affects rates of tropical deforestation. Data come from surveys conducted in the Philippines over the period 1995-2001. The timing and coverage of the data provide an opportunity to study the direct and indirecteffects of irrigation on agricultural production and labor allocation, while controlling for a number of agronomic features of the sample farms and important social factors such as tenure security. It is also possible to trace the causal chain of impacts leading from technology changes to changesin employment, incomes, and activities undertaken by households living along the forest margin. The analysis links three bodies of economic theory regarding agricultural development, labor market dynamics, and environmental management. Specific objectives include (1) assessing labor hiring and labor selling decisions in a dynamic context and their implications for capital formation, subsequent factor use, labor market participation, and forest pressure; (2) identifying the importance of transaction and supervision costs, as well as tenure security and site-specific factor productivity, for labor hiring and selling decisions; and (3) testing and correcting for attrition bias in the sample, especially as influenced by tenure security and factor productivity. Results will provide an empirical foundation for assessing competing theories regarding poverty and the environment, and will also inform broader debates regarding the distributional effects of growth and development and their implications for important aspects of household behavior. Results should have implications for a range of social and environmental outcomes including economic development, poverty reduction, biodiversity protection and carbon sequestration.