Collaborative Research: Detection and Attribution of Changes in the Hydrologic Regimes of the Mackenzie, the Kuparuk and the Lena River Basins

这项研究的目的是检测和记录加拿大西部、阿拉斯加和东西伯利亚北极地区淡水储存的变化，将这些变化归因于其土地覆盖或气候来源，并评估过去和未来储存成分(如活跃层深度、湖泊体积)的变化对北冰洋淡水输入的影响。其目的是描述不断变化的水文状况的空间特征，以促进对未来水文条件的准确预测，并发展一种数值模拟能力，这种能力1)准确地捕捉当代气候和水文动态，2)对未来情景作出合理准确的反应，3)纳入有据可查的算法，这些算法将分发给希望包括北极地区动态陆地表面过程的其他建模小组(例如，用于植物动力学或气体通量的研究)。调查人员还将通过使用基于空间的模型结果来开发基于统计的模型，从而提供泛北极视角。这项研究大致分为两个主要组成部分：过程级水文研究和大规模大气研究，并有一个明确的方法来弥合尺度差异。过程一级的研究包括对水文循环中的储存组成部分进行实地观察和分析，以及对其在水文循环中的作用进行建模。实地研究包括对主要储存部件的调查，文献搜索和遥感填补了许多空白。还将在有长期记录和持续测量方案的育空中部、库帕鲁克、育空上游、麦肯齐和莱纳流域的南北横断面沿线的几个小流域进行流域尺度的实地研究。该模型将应用于这些小流域，以利用当代记录进行校准和验证，并根据我们的大气模型对过去、现在和未来的气候情景进行整个流域的校正和验证。大气模式PAM是一种最先进的区域气候模式，将为泛北极环境下的使用量身定做，并将由网格大气重新分析驱动。大气模型的结果将用现有的观测数据进行验证，网格模型的输出将用于强制水文模型。

The objectives of this research are to detect and document changes in the storage of freshwater in the Arctic regions of the Western Canadian, Alaskan, and Eastern Siberian Arctic, to ascribe those changes to their land cover or climate source, and assess the impacts of past and future variations in storage components (e.g., active layer depth, lake volume) on freshwater inputs into the Arctic Ocean. The aim is to characterize the changing hydrologic regime spatially to facilitate accurate projections of future hydrologic conditions and to develop a numerical modeling capability that 1) accurately captures contemporary climatic and hydrologic dynamics, 2) projects reasonably accurate responses to future scenarios and 3) incorporates well documented algorithms that will be distributed to other modeling groups wishing to include dynamic land surface processes in arctic regions (e.g., for studies of vegetation dynamics or gas flux). The investigators will also provide a pan-Arctic perspective by using spatially-based model results to develop a statistically-based model. The research is divided broadly into two main components: process-level hydrologic studies and large-scale atmospheric studies, with a well-defined approach to bridge the scale differences. Process-level studies include field observations and analyses of the storage components in the hydrological cycle as well as modeling of their role in the hydrological cycle. Field studies include surveys of the main storage components, with literature searches and remote sensing filling in many of the gaps. Field studies on the watershed scale will also be conducted at several small watersheds along North/South transects covering the Middle Yukon, Kuparuk, Upper Yukon, Mackenzie and Lena watersheds where long-term records and on-going measurement programs exist. The WaterWERCs model will be applied to these small sub-watersheds for calibration and validation using contemporary records, and to the entire watersheds for both climate scenarios of the past, present and future driven from our atmospheric modeling. The atmospheric model, PAM, is a state-of-the-art regional climate model that will be tailored for use in a pan-Arctic setting and will be driven by gridded atmospheric re-analyses. The atmospheric model results will be validated with available observational data and the gridded model output will be used to force a hydrologic model.