Collaborative Research: An Integrated Assessment of the Pan-Arctic Freshwater System: Analysis of Retrospective and Contemporary Conditions

该提案是对泛北极水循环的综合和一体化研究。将开发一个扩大的北极区域综合监测系统，将现有的泛北极陆地和大气水文监测系统与北冰洋和海冰组成部分联系起来。在陆地方面，E-RIMS将产生随时间变化的大气和陆地表面水收支，包括流入北冰洋的河流和冰融化。对于海洋，来自大气和陆地的淡水通量将与观测到的质量、热量和动量强迫一起用于驱动海洋-海冰-大气耦合模型。 这些相互关联的模型将用于研究大气和陆地中淡水通量的起源，以及水在海洋中如何在固体（海冰）和液体形式之间分配。E-RIMS还将跟踪从大陆架向外、向下到混合层以下以及横向到通往北大西洋的海峡的淡水运输。 近实时监测计划和历史分析（从1960年开始）为了解北极水文循环的未来变化提供了一个重要的基准。根据目前的北极-RIMS协议，临时数据集（约。1-2延迟一个月），然后每年重新分析一次，以提高质量保证。将提供陆地和海洋水平衡的所有关键要素，包括对潜在误差的评估。业务数据集将在伙伴机构网站上和通过国家统计数据中心免费提供。E-RIMS将补充其他研究人员使用更充分耦合的空气-陆地-海洋模型的努力，向他们提供初始和边界条件，并进行一系列初步的数值实验，以帮助设计计算成本更高的反馈研究。作为这项工作的最后一部分，数值预报预测和中期预报将被用来探索在这项研究的过程中将开发多少技能。

This proposal is a synthesis and integration study of the pan-Arctic water cycle. An Expanded Arctic Regional Integrated Monitoring System (E-RIMS) will be developed that links an existing, operational hydrological monitoring system for the pan-Arctic landmass and atmosphere (Arctic-RIMS) to an Arctic Ocean and sea ice component. On the terrestrial side, E-RIMS will produce time varying aerological and land surface water budgets including river and ice melt inputs to the Arctic Ocean. For the ocean, freshwater fluxes from the atmosphere and land will be used in concert with observed mass, heat and momentum forcing to drive a coupled ocean-sea ice-atmosphere model. The linked models will be used to examine the origin of freshwater fluxes in the atmosphere and landmass and how water is then partitioned between solid (sea ice) and liquid forms in the ocean. E-RIMS will also track freshwater transport off the shelf, downward below the mixed layer, and laterally toward the straits leading to the North Atlantic Ocean. The near real-time monitoring program and historical analysis (from 1960) provides an important benchmark for understanding future change to the arctic hydrologic cycle. In keeping with current Arctic-RIMS protocols, provisional data sets (ca. 1-2 month delay) will be made available and then re-analyzed at yearly intervals for improved quality assurance. All key elements of the terrestrial and ocean water balance will be provided, including an assessment of potential error. Operational data sets will be freely accessible on partner institution web sites and through NSIDC. E-RIMS will complement efforts by other investigators using more fully coupled air-land-ocean models, by providing to them initial and boundary conditions and by carrying-out a set of preliminary numerical experiments to help design their more computationally expensive feedback studies. As a final part of this work, NWP predictions and medium-term forecasts will be used to explore how much skill will have been developed over the course of this study.