Development of Specific Regression Models Involving Latent Classes in Social Research

该项目旨在开发三组新的具体回归模型，用于分析社会和个人进程。 所有这三个回归模型都涉及潜在类，用于测量未直接观察到的数量和反映未观察到的群体异质性的具体方面。 一组由多项logit潜类回归模型与特殊的对比之间的依赖潜类类别，它将被开发用于分析社会流动性的社会群体内的比较。第二组是两类模型的一种特殊情况，即移动者-滞留者模型的回归扩展，用于公众舆论稳定性和变化的面板数据分析。 第三组模型，潜在的选择模型，假设一对二分潜在类变量，代表丈夫和妻子的潜在的选择作为协变量的观察到的二分因变量的离散时间的危险率分析的家庭事件，使用对已婚夫妇的事件历史数据。 虽然这三组模型在形式和实质应用上有所不同，但它们都是为了使用潜在阶级分析社会和个人过程。对于每一个模型，该研究解决了与以下有关的问题：（1）模型的具体参数化，特别是关于潜在类别，关于这种参数化在分析特定社会和个人过程中可能提供的新见解，（2）参数估计的稳定性，及（3）将项目中所发展的模式的结果与现有的相关替代模式的结果进行比较。如果不将这些模型用于社会研究领域，就不可能或不可能最终获得实质性的研究结果。 第一组模式的实质性应用领域是社会群体内的社会流动性比较，例如社会流动模式的差异，在这方面，基于现有流动性模式的分析具有严重的局限性。 该项目中开发的模型将为社会机会的种族/民族不平等提供新的线索。第二组模型的实质性应用领域是对舆论变化的小组数据分析。该模型通过假设群体的响应基于未观察到的异质置信水平，将阳性与阴性响应的预测与这些响应的稳定性预测分开。如果对1990 ~ 1992年布什第一届政府的支持率的上升和下降进行分析，就会发现，支持者的信心水平远低于不支持者的信心水平，因此，对政府的支持率虽然看起来很高，但其基础却很薄弱。 第三组模式的实质性应用领域是分析一个家庭过程，其结果是一个家庭事件，如离婚、生育、搬家或购买房屋-关于这些事件，丈夫和妻子可能彼此同意，也可能彼此不同意。 这些模型不仅试图确定潜在的个人选择的预测因子，而且还试图确定未观察到的家庭异质性的预测因子，这些异质性涉及：（1）丈夫和妻子之间在导致事件发生或不发生方面的相对“权力”，以及（2）妻子和丈夫之间达成共识以产生家庭事件发生的程度。

This project aims at developing three new groups of specific regression models for the analysis of social and individual processes. All the three regression models involve latent classes for the purpose of both the measurement of quantities that are not directly observed and the reflection of specific aspects of unobserved population heterogeneity. One group consists of multinomial logit latent-class regression models with special contrasts among the dependent latent-class categories, and it will be developed for the analysis of intrasocietal group comparisons of social mobility. The second group consists of regression extensions of the mover-stayer model, which is a special case of the two-class model, for the panel data analysis of stability and change in public opinions. The third group of models, latent-choice models, assume a pair of dichotomous latent-class variables that represent husband's and wife's latent choices as covariates of an observed dichotomous dependent variable for the discrete-time hazard-rate analysis of a family event using pairs of event-history data of married couples. Although the three groups of models differ in form and substantive application, they are all intended for the analysis of social and individual processes using latent classes. For each model, the study addresses issues related to (1) specific parameterizations of models, especially about latent classes, regarding possible new insights that such parameterizations may provide in the analysis of particular social and individual processes, (2) the stability of parameter estimates, and (3) comparisons of results from models to be developed in the project with those from related existing alternative models.The three groups of specific latent-class models are expected to yield substantive findings that cannot be made, or cannot be obtained definitively, without using them in the areas of social research for which the models are intended. The substantive area of applications of the first group of models is intrasocietal group comparisons of social mobility, such as differences in social mobility patterns, for which an analysis based on existing mobility models has serous limitations. The models to be developed in the project will shed new light on racial/ethnic inequality of social opportunity. The substantive area of applications of the second group of models is the panel-data analysis of change in public opinion. The models separate the prediction of positive versus negative response from the prediction of the stability of these responses by assuming that responses of a population are based on unobserved heterogeneous confidence levels. An application, such as an analysis of the rise and the fall of support for the first Bush administration through the years 1990-92, may yield such a finding that an apparently high rate of support for the government administration stands on a weak basis because supporters' confidence levels are much lower than nonsupporters' confidence levels. The substantive area of applications of the third group of models is the analysis of a family process having as its outcome a family event, such as divorce, childbirth, a residential move, or the purchase of a house -- regarding which the husband and the wife may or may not agree with each other. The models will try not only to identify the predictors of latent individual choices but also the predictors of unobserved family heterogeneity regarding (1) the relative "power" between husband and wife in causing event occurrence or nonoccurrence, and (2) the extent to which a consensus between wife and husband is required to yield the occurrence of the family event.