Estimation of Gross Domestic Product Before 1800: The Colonies and States of the Mid Atlantic Region

该项目将为英属北美中部殖民地（包括今天的纽约州、新泽西州、特拉华州和宾夕法尼亚州）提供18世纪基准日期的国内生产总值（GDP）和人均GDP估计数。这项研究遵循了一个关于南部地区（北卡罗来纳州、南卡罗来纳州和格鲁吉亚）经济的试点项目。在完成对中部殖民地的研究后，研究人员将估计新英格兰和切萨皮克湾地区的GDP，并将所有地区的数据联合收割机结合起来，以获得整个殖民地的GDP。研究人员还应将这些数字与大卫（1967）和韦斯构建的世纪早期GDP序列联系起来（1992年和1994年）以及自那时以来对国内生产总值的现有估计，包括商务部编制的官方系列。该项目将使用由大卫设计并由韦斯修改的估计方法估计国内生产总值，并用于南部地区的试点项目。对中部殖民地的估计，就像对南方南部的估计一样，将利用过去几十年积累的关于这些殖民地财富和生活水平的丰富而广泛的文献，将利用遗嘱样本和其他研究人员汇编的其他数据集，并将用我们在南方南部发现的文件证据来补充这项工作。将编写一份附有注释的书目、遗嘱样本和一个数据库，其中载有与估计该区域国内生产总值有关的变量数据，并提供给其他研究人员，估计数将考虑到美洲土著印第安人的经济活动。无论人们认为印第安人应该被视为殖民经济的一部分，还是作为单独的民族和贸易伙伴，都需要考虑到他们的经济活动及其对殖民者的影响。美洲原住民在数量上太重要了，不容忽视。拟议中的工作将更清楚地确定美洲原住民参与市场的程度，他们与殖民者的经济互动，本项目将研究美国殖民地时期和早期民族时期是如何促进美国经济逐步加速并实现持续经济增长的。这项工作的更广泛影响我们的估计将对以下方面产生最大的兴趣：经济历史学家最初，并已被引用的教科书（例如休斯和凯恩，2003年）。从长远来看，它们将对那些从事实证宏观经济学和经济增长的人有用。这项工作最终可以为有关国家经济的公共政策决策提供信息。正如我们在南部地区的试点研究一样，我们将制作对其他研究人员有用的数据库，我们将通过EH NET网站和CD-ROM随时提供这些数据库。该项目还将涉及本科生，主要是作为付费助理，但正如试点项目中所发生的那样，他们很可能对这一课题产生足够的兴趣，从事自己的研究。 这个项目将使代表性不足的群体参与这项研究，就像以前由韦斯主持的NSF赞助的项目一样。这项研究的一部分是关于美洲原住民经济史的，这一事实应该会增加其他代表性不足的群体参与并被吸引到经济学研究中的可能性。此外，由于这项研究中有美洲原住民的参与，我们计划向多学科会议和讲习班介绍我们的研究结果，并以能够接触到更广泛受众的方式进行传播，就像在试点项目中所做的那样。

The project will produce estimates of gross domestic product (GDP) and GDP per capitaat benchmark dates in the eighteenth century for the Middle Colonies of British North America, an area composed of the present-day states of New York, New Jersey, Delaware, and Pennsylvania. This study follows a pilot project on the economy of the Lower South (North Carolina, South Carolina, and Georgia). After completion of the work on the Middle Colonies, the investigators will estimate GDP for New Englandand the Chesapeake Bay region, and combine the figures for all regions to obtain GDP for the colonies as a whole. The investigators shall also link those figures to the GDP series for the early nineteenth century constructed by David (1967) and Weiss (1992 and 1994) and to existing estimates of GDP for the period since then, including official series produced by the Department of Commerce.The project will estimate GDP by using the method of estimation devised by David and modified by Weiss, and used in the pilot project on the Lower South. The proposed estimates for the Middle Colonies, like those for the Lower South, will draw on the rich and extensive literature on wealth and standards of living in these colonies that has accumulated over the past several decades, will make use of the probate samples and other data sets that have been compiled by other researchers, and will supplement this work with documentary evidence of the sort we found for the Lower South. An annotated bibliography, probate samples and a database containing data on variables pertinent to estimating GDP for the region will be prepared and made available to other researchers.The estimates will take into account the economic activity of Native American Indians. Whether one thinks that Indians should be treated as though they were part of the colonial economy or as separate nations and trading partners, their economic activity and its impact on the colonists needs to be taken into account. Native Americans were simply too important quantitatively to be ignored. The proposed work will establish more clearly the extent of Native Americans' participation in markets, their economic interactions with colonists, and the value of output produced by them.This project will investigate the ways in which the colonial and early national periods of America contributed to the gradual acceleration of the nation's economy into sustained economic growth.Broader Impact of This WorkOur estimates will be of greatest interest to economic historians initially, and are already being cited in textbooks (e.g. Hughes and Cain, 2003). In the longer term they will be of use to those doing empirical macroeconomics and economic growth. This work can eventually inform public policy decisions regarding the nation's economy.As in our pilot study on the Lower South, we will produce databases that will be of use to other researchers, and we will make these readily available via the EH NET website and CD-ROMs.The project will also involve undergraduates, primarily as paid assistants, but as occurred in the pilot project, they are likely to become interested enough in the subject to engage in research of their own. And this project will engage underrepresented groups in this research just as occurred in previous NSF sponsored projects conducted by Weiss. The fact that part of this research is about Native American economic history should increase the likelihood that other underrepresented groups will participate and be attracted to the study of economics. Furthermore, with the Native American component to this research we plan to present our results to multidisciplinary conferences and workshops,and disseminate it in ways that will reach broader audiences, just as was done in the pilot project.