ITR: Bayesian Modeling for Biosurveillance

及早、可靠地发现疾病暴发，无论是自然疾病（如西尼罗河病毒）还是生物恐怖分子引起的疾病（如炭疽和天花），都是当今的一个关键问题。重要的是及早发现疫情，以便提供尽可能最佳的医疗反应和治疗，并提高确定源头的机会。该项目的一个主要目标是开发基本的新贝叶斯概率推理算法，以监测电子可用的医疗保健数据，以实现及早、可靠地发现疾病爆发。特别是，推理将在贝叶斯网络上进行，该网络对现有数据与爆发的可能原因之间的联系进行建模。在整个人口中监测疫情的科学挑战在建立和应用贝叶斯模型方面造成了重大的计算挑战，这些模型比以前开发的模型要大几个数量级。该项目将应用和扩展最先进的概率推理方法，以实现有效的推理。如果推断表明可能发生爆发，则会自动发出警报。然而，公共卫生官员不太可能盲目相信疫情警报，除非有解释理由。因此，贝叶斯推理的自动解释是项目的另一个关键目标。该项目的科学贡献将来自开发、调查和评估新的建模和算法技术，这些技术使贝叶斯生物监测在监测和诊断（实时）整个人群的疾病爆发状态方面变得实用。在调查这些问题的过程中，预计该项目将对计算机科学、统计学和公共卫生作出具体的科学贡献，并对公共安全作出更广泛的贡献。

Early, reliable detection of outbreaks of disease, whether natural (e.g., West Nile virus) or bioterrorist-induced (e.g., anthrax and smallpox), is a critical problem today. It is important to detect outbreaks early in order to provide the best possible medical response and treatment, as well as to improve the chances of identifying the source. A primary goal of this project is to develop basic new Bayesian probabilistic inference algorithms that monitor electronically available healthcare data to achieve early, reliable detection of outbreaks. In particular, inference will take place on Bayesian networks that model the links between available data and possible causes of outbreaks. The scientific challenge of monitoring for outbreaks within an entire population create major computational challenges in building and applying Bayesian models that are orders of magnitude larger than those developed previously. The project will apply and extend state-of-the-art probabilistic inference methods to achieve efficient inference. If inference indicates that an outbreak is likely, an alert will be raised automatically. Appropriately, however, public health officials are unlikely to blindly trust an outbreak alert, unless there is an explanatory justification. Automated explanation of Bayesian inference is therefore another key project goal. The scientific contributions of this project will follow from developing, investigating, and evaluating new modeling and algorithmic techniques that make Bayesian biosurveillance practical for monitoring and diagnosing (in real time) the disease-outbreak status of an entire population. In investigating these issues, this project is anticipated to make both specific scientific contributions to computer science, statistics, and public health, as well as broader contributions to public safety.