BE: MUSES: Tracking Heavy Metal Life Cycle Pathways with Input-Output Methods

这个环境中的生物复杂性-材料使用：科学、工程和社会研究项目旨在开发重金属在美国约500个经济部门流动的投入产出模型，包括那些代表产品使用和回收的部门。下一代模型将以现有的经济投入产出生命周期评估（EIO-LCA）模型为基础，为镉、铬、铜、铅、汞和镍等金属的材料使用研究提供基础。重金属是相当令人担忧的，因为它们在许多工业中广泛使用，其中许多是剧毒的。了解我们如何以及为什么使用这些有毒物质可以帮助决策者更有效地利用它们或减少/完全消除它们的使用。这项研究将为现有的物质流动和物质流动的变化提供一种廉价、快速的分析工具。将利用关于排放和环境浓度的独立信息源来证实排放估计，并将这些信息结合起来评估和描述模式预测中的不确定性。对加拿大和日本的金属使用、再使用和再循环率进行国际比较将有助于了解问题的严重程度和可能的材料管理战略。这些下一代LCA模型将允许从单个产品水平到工业部门水平确定重金属的稳态供应链、释放、使用和回收流。这些模型还将提供对由于新技术、经济活动增长和经济活动混合变化而导致的重金属流量变化的估计。将确定涉及新技术和管理战略的导致长期可持续材料使用的情景。通过与多个数据集和仿真结果的比较，将识别和表征数据和模型的不确定性。该项目将在互联网上实现广泛使用的模型，包括教育模块和专为中学生设计的专门接口。这些新模型将告知各种利益相关者，如工业、环保组织、监管机构和广大公众，他们关注这些重金属流动。

This Biocomplexity in the Environment - Materials Use: Science, Engineering and Society research project is aimed at developing input-output models of heavy metal flows throughout some 500 economic sectors in the United States, including those representing product use and recycling. This next generation of models will build upon the existing Economic Input-Output Life-Cycle Assessment (EIO-LCA) model, providing a basis for the materials use studies of metals such as cadmium, chromium, copper, lead, mercury and nickel. The heavy metals are of considerable concern as they are in widespread use in numerous industries and many are quite toxic. Understanding how and why we use these toxic materials can help the decision-makers make use of them more effectively or reduce/eliminate their use altogether. This research will result in an inexpensive, quick analysis tool for both existing material flows and changes in material flows. Emissions estimates will be corroborated using independent information sources for emissions and ambient concentrations, and these will be combined to assess and characterize the uncertainty in model predictions. International comparisons of metals use, reuse and recycle rates in Canada and Japan will provide insights into the magnitude of problems and possible material management strategies. These next generation LCA models will permit steady-state supply chain, releases, uses and recycling flows of heavy metals to be identified at the individual product level up through the industrial sector level. The models will also provide estimates of changes in heavy metal flows due to new technologies, growth in economic activity and changes in mix of economic activity. Scenarios leading to long-term sustainable materials use will be identified involving both new technologies and management strategies. With comparison to multiple datasets and simulation results, the data and model uncertainty will be identified and characterized. The project will implement the models on the Internet for widespread use, including education modules and a specialized interface intended for middle and secondary school students. The new models will inform the various stakeholders such as industry, environmental groups, regulators and the public at large who are concerned with these heavy metal flows.