Tropical Atlantic Variability and Its Predictability Using the Community Climate System Model

该项目将利用社区气候系统模型第二版，结合从简单混合层到海洋全球气候模型复杂性的海洋模型，进行一系列模拟和集合预报实验，探索热带大西洋的大气-海洋变异性。这种方法的目的是确定目前在气候模拟和预测系统中没有得到很好理解或很好体现的各种（上层）海洋过程的作用：特别是两个过程是风-蒸发-海面温度反馈和赤道海气相互作用对热带大西洋变率的贡献，以及纬向和纬向海面温度模式的可预测性，重点是海洋动力学和赤道热输送。更广泛的影响：这项研究的结果预计将提供有用的信息，社区气候系统模式的第二版中的大的系统性偏差的潜在原因，以及其他耦合模式在热带大西洋，有助于指导未来的模式改进。该项目将资助一名研究生。

This project will explore atmosphere-ocean variability in the tropical Atlantic by performing a series of simulations and ensemble forecast experiments using version two of the community climate system model, coupled to ocean models ranging from simple mixed-layer to ocean global climate model complexity. The aim of this approach is to determine the roles of various (upper) ocean processes that are currently not well understood or well represented in climate modeling and prediction systems: Two processes in particular are the contributions to tropical Atlantic variability by the wind-evaporation-sea surface temperature feedback and equatorial air-sea interactions, and predictability of the meridional and zonal sea surface temperature modes, with emphasis on the oceanic dynamics and meridional heat transport. An anomaly coupling approach is being adopted to compensate for the effects of any systematic bias in the models.Broader Impacts:Results of this research are expected to provide useful information on the potential cause of the large systematic biases in version two of the community climate system model, and other coupled models in the tropical Atlantic, helping to guide future model improvements. One graduate student will be supported by this project.