Precontact Population Decline and Coalescence in the Southern Southwest

在欧洲疾病传入前一个世纪，4万人是如何从西南南部消失的？一个多世纪以来，这个问题一直困扰着考古学家和广大公众。方法和理论的进步以及数据的积累使我们有机会重新思考这个问题。在美国国家科学基金会的支持下，该项目将在该地区的四个关键研究区域研究这种下降的原因、速度和空间变异性。沙漠考古中心（CDA）的Coalescent Communities定居点数据库表明，这种人口减少是在公元1300年至1450年间逐渐发生的。这一结论得到了最近在亚利桑那州东南部圣佩德罗河谷下游进行的CDA研究的支持，那里的人口下降是一个与长途迁移和人口聚集有关的复杂过程。经过几十年的人口逐渐减少，社会群体之间的界限逐渐消失，因为群体继续联合起来维持灌溉系统和社会网络。到公元1450年，圣佩德罗山谷被当地和移民群体的后代组成的残余人口所占领。此后不久，这些人要么放弃了这一地区，要么成为“考古学上的隐形人”。该模型将在另外四个研究区域进行评估，这些区域突出了西南南部的变化：凤凰盆地、Tonto盆地、Perry Mesa盆地和Safford盆地。每个领域都提供了对这些过程的独特视角。一个复杂的问题需要多种分析策略。为了在每个研究区域测试建议的模型，我们将使用现有的收集和进行有限的地面收集，以便：利用修订后的史前晚期陶器定年方案提高考古遗址的时间分辨率评估每个研究区域的迁移发生和规模通过定居和陶瓷交换模式检查每个研究区域内不同社会群体之间的贸易和冲突通过黑曜石交换模式检查更大范围内的相互作用在GIS中重建环境和农业变量，包括地形，耕地，溪流，从现有埋葬人群的骨骼学数据中寻找营养压力、疾病、创伤、生育率和死亡率变化的证据。这些不同的证据线索将由一个研究小组综合，该研究小组拥有一个多世纪的区域和专题经验，与解决我们的中心问题有关。此外，学生将在数据收集和分析过程中作为研究助理进一步学习。项目成果将广泛传播给专业人士和公众。该项目的综合结果将以几种形式向专业社区提出，包括独立研究人员会议、国家会议报告和专业期刊文章。该项目的结果将在《西南考古》（CDA的季刊）和外联讲座中向公众展示，强调图森、凤凰城和南部较小社区保存考古学的重要性。最后，将向部落政府和美洲原住民群体的文化资源专家作报告。史前晚期的遗址尤其受到掠夺者和城市发展的威胁，加强保护是该项目的另一个好处。CDA将利用这个项目的信息来扩大我们的土地购买和地役权保护计划。项目成果将改善两处重点关注考古资源的大型新国家纪念地的解释和管理政策。最后，这些结果将通过扩大亚利桑那州历史保护计划而使州决策者受益。

How did 40,000 people vanish from the southern Southwest a century before the introduction of European diseases? This question has intrigued and vexed archaeologists and the broader public for more than a century. Advances in method and theory, and data accumulation make this an opportune time to reconsider this question. With National Science Foundation support, this project will examine the causes, tempo, and spatial variability of this decline in four key study areas within the region.The Center for Desert Archaeology's (CDA) Coalescent Communities settlement database indicates that this population reduction occurred gradually during the interval from A.D. 1300 to 1450. This conclusion is supported by recent CDA research in the lower San Pedro valley in southeastern Arizona, where demographic decline was a complex process associated with long distance migration and population aggregation. After decades of gradual population loss, boundaries between social groups slowly dissolved as groups continued to coalesce to maintain irrigation systems and social networks. By A.D. 1450, the San Pedro valley was occupied by a remnant population comprised of descendants of both local and migrant groups. This population either abandoned the region shortly thereafter or became "archaeologically invisible."This model will be evaluated in four additional study areas that highlight the variation in the southern Southwest: the Phoenix Basin, Tonto Basin, Perry Mesa, and Safford Basin. Each area provides a unique perspective on these processes. A complex problem requires multiple analytical strategies. To test the proposed model in each study area we will use existing collections and conduct limited surface collections to: enhance the temporal resolution of archaeological sites using a revised scheme for dating late prehistoric pottery assess the occurrence and scale of migration in each study region examine trade and conflict between different social groups in each study area through settlement and ceramic exchange patterns examine interaction on a larger scale through obsidian exchange patterns reconstruct environmental and agricultural variables in a GIS, including terrain, arable land, streamflow, and temperature review osteological data from existing burial populations for evidence of nutritional stress, disease, trauma, and changes in fertility and mortality ratesThese various threads of evidence will be synthesized by a research team with over a century of combined regional and topical experience relevant to resolution of our central question. In addition, students will further their education as research assistants during the data collection and analysis process.Project results will be broadly disseminated to the professional community and the general public. Synthetic results of this project will be presented to the professional community in several formats, including a conference of independent researchers, presentations at national meetings, and articles in professional journals. The project results will be presented to the general public in an issue of Archaeology Southwest (CDA's quarterly magazine) and outreach lectures, highlighting the importance of preservation archaeology, in Tucson, Phoenix, and smaller communities in southern. Finally, presentations will be made to tribal governments and cultural resource specialists of Native American groups.Sites from the late prehistoric period are particularly threatened by looters and urban development, and enhanced preservation is another benefit of this project. CDA will use information from this project to expand our site purchase and conservation easement preservation program. Project results will improve interpretation and management policy at two large new National Monuments that focus on archaeological resources. Finally, these results will benefit state policymakers by augmenting the Arizona State Historic Preservation Plan.