DMUU: Integrating Methods and Identifying Priorities

气候变化挑战着我们在不确定情况下做出决策的能力。 预测关键气象变量的能力不断提高，最多可提前两年，这增加了挑战。 虽然对未来状况的预测充满了不确定性，但它们的预测能力越来越强。 在各种学科中已经开发了一些工具和方法，以帮助在不确定情况下做出决策，包括风险分析、环境评估、制度设计和公众参与。 但目前尚不清楚如何将其中的大多数应用于面对气候变化的不确定性所做的典型决策;该项目将举办两个讲习班和一个公共专题讨论会，汇集气候变化影响方面的科学家专家，研究决策方法和工具的研究人员，以及那些在气候变化的不确定性面前必须做出关键决定的人。 该项目的目标是让科学家了解有助于决策者应对气候变化的研究类型，并让决策者了解已经存在并可能对他们有所帮助的知识、工具和方法。 该项目将导致在这一点上没有很好地整合决策支持方法的文献的整合和综合。 该项目还将为未来的研究制定一个议程，并为决策者提供关于现有工具的优缺点的指导。 讲习班的成果将分发给更广泛的社区。 这一发展奖是作为2003财政年度人类和社会动态优先领域不确定性下决策特别竞赛的一部分得到支持的。

Climate change challenges our ability to make decisions under uncertainty. The increasing ability to make predictions of key meteorological variables as much as two years in advance adds to the challenge. While forecasts of future conditions are fraught with uncertainty, they have increasing predictive ability. A number of tools and methods have been developed in various disciplines to aid in making decisions under uncertainty, including risk analysis, environmental valuation, institutional design, and public participation. But it is not clear how most of these can be applied to typical decisions made in the face of uncertainty about climate change; nor is it clear how well these tools make use of existing scientific information.This project will hold two workshops and a public symposium that will bring together scientists expert on climate change impacts, researchers who have worked on decision making methods and tools, and those who have to make critical decisions in the face of uncertainty about climate change. The goals of the project are to inform scientists about the kinds of research that will help decision makers deal with climate change and to inform decision makers about the knowledge, tools, and methods that already exist and may be of help to them. The project will result in an integration and synthesis of literatures on decision support methods that are not well integrated at this point. The project also will produce both an agenda for future research and guidance for decision makers about the strengths and weaknesses of existing tools. Products from the workshops will be disseminated to the broader community. This developmental award was supported as part of the Fiscal Year 2003 Human and Social Dynamics priority area special competition on Decision Making Under Uncertainty (DMUU).