CAREER: Modeling Watershed Flooding and Adaptive Flood Management: An Integrative Plan for Research, Teaching, and Learning

随着沿海地区人口的增长和城市的发展，洪水对人类安全和自然环境的完整性构成了重大威胁。为了减轻沿海洪水的不利影响，决策者越来越多地倡导流域或生态系统管理方法。尽管有人认为，一些最严重的洪水灾害是由于未能理解区域生态环境造成的，但关于增长和发展模式如何增加流域洪水威胁以及社区如何随着时间的推移对重复性洪水事件作出反应的实证研究却很少。我的职业计划将通过实施一项关于减轻洪水的互动研究和教育计划来满足这一需求，可持续流域管理和政策学习。它将通过整合研究、教育和信息传播，为沿海洪水灾害的适应性决策制定一个框架。研究部分将侧重于湿地开发对沿海流域洪水的影响，以及社区一级的政策学习，以减轻洪水对人类和自然环境的不利影响。一个两阶段的纵向研究设计将采用定量和定性分析，以调查在得克萨斯州和佛罗里达的洪水问题。第一阶段将使用地理信息系统（GIS）检查十年内湿地发展的空间模式，并将这种发展与沿海流域洪水相关联。第二阶段将通过检查社区如何调整和适应重复性洪水来确定政策学习的阈值。这两个研究阶段将使用多变量分析来衡量湿地开发对洪水的影响，以及洪水对政策调整的影响，同时控制社会经济，生物物理和其他环境因素。职业计划的教育部分将开发关于沿海流域管理和减轻洪灾的地方学习模块。一系列跨学科的，基于问题的研讨会将提供一个真实的学习经验，以培养未来的科学家，教师和政策制定者，以解决生态系统层面的危害issues.Intellectual价值的拟议计划的研究的智力价值是基于推进沿海流域洪水的原因，并显示如何适应政策机制，以减轻洪水的知识。研究结果将有助于adecision决策框架减轻洪水的具体类型，大小和位置的湿地，减轻洪水的理解，并提供指导流域规划者managingadaptively随着时间的推移。鉴于沿海地区的持续发展以及人口对沿海洪水的脆弱性日益增加，这种理解至关重要。拟议研究的独特之处之一将是利用在湿地损失分析中未充分利用的数据源。国家湿地许可证和美国地质勘探局洪水测量数据库提供了重要的机会进行流域洪水的实证研究。拟议计划的更广泛的影响虽然该项目将有助于科学的理解和管理能力，它也将促进教学和学习系统范围内的生态问题。通过参与美国国家科学基金会赞助的信息技术和科学计划以及可持续的自然资源计划，该项目将把流域管理和洪水缓解的研究与教育和培训结合起来，以解决这些问题。跨学科的、基于地方的学习模块将通过解决问题、实地经验以及流域案例研究和相关网站的开发，培训学生和教师理解复杂的生态系统管理问题并采取行动。学年期间的课程将针对研究生，而夏季课程也将包括K-12教师。该项目的另一个积极影响将是从代表性不足的群体中招募和培训学生。这些人将在该项目的研究和教育部分发挥至关重要的作用。最后，成果的传播将有利于学术界和决策界。除了在会议和讲习班上介绍研究成果外，还将与公共决策者分享信息。

As population growth and urban development continue to expand in the coastal margin, flooding poses amajor threat to human safety and the integrity of the natural environment. To mitigate the adverseimpacts of coastal flooding, decision makers are increasingly advocating watershed or ecosystemapproaches to management. While it is argued that some of the most serious flood hazards are the resultof a failure to understand the regional ecological context, little empirical research has been done on howgrowth and development patterns increase the threat of floods at the watershed level and howcommunities respond over time to repetitive flooding events.My career plan will address this need by implementing an interactive research and educational programon flood mitigation, sustainable watershed management, and policy learning. It will develop a frameworkfor adaptive decision making for coastal flood hazards by integrating research, education, and informationdissemination. The research component will focus on the impacts of wetland development on coastalwatershed flooding and policy learning at the community level to mitigate the adverse impacts of flooddamage to the human and natural environment. A two-phase longitudinal research design will employboth quantitative and qualitative analyses to investigate flooding problems in Texas and Florida. Phaseone will use Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to examine the spatial pattern of wetlanddevelopment over a ten-year period and correlate this development with coastal watershed flooding.Phase two will identify thresholds of policy learning by examining how communities adjust and adapt torepetitive flooding. Both research phases will use multivariate analysis to measure the effects of wetlanddevelopment on flooding and the effects of flooding on policy adjustment while controlling forsocioeconomic, biophysical, and other contextual factors. The education component of the career planwill develop place-based learning modules on coastal watershed management and flood mitigation. Aseries of interdisciplinary, problem-based seminars will provide an authentic learning experience toprepare future scientists, teachers, and policy makers to address ecosystem-level hazards issues.Intellectual Merit of Proposed Plan The intellectual merit of the research is based on advancing knowledge of the causes of coastal watershedflooding and showing how to adapt policy mechanisms to mitigate floods. Results will contribute to adecision-making framework for flood mitigation by increasing understanding of the specific type, size,and location of wetlands that mitigate flooding and provide guidance to watershed planners for managingadaptively over time. This understanding is critical given the continued development of coastal areas andthe increasing vulnerability of human populations to coastal flooding. One of the unique features of theproposed research will be the utilization of data sources that have been underutilized in the analysis ofwetland loss. The national wetland permit and USGS flood gauge databases offer important opportunitiesto conduct an empirical study on watershed flooding.Broader Impacts of Proposed Plan While the project will contribute to scientific understanding and management capabilities, it will alsopromote teaching and learning on system-wide ecological problems. By building on participation in theUniversity.s NSF sponsored Informational Technology and Science Program and Sustainable CoastalMargins Program, the project will integrate research on watershed management and flood mitigation witheducation and training to solve these issues. Interdisciplinary, place-based learning modules will trainstudents and teachers to understand and act upon complex ecosystem management problems throughproblem solving, field experience, and the development of watershed case studies and associatedwebsites. Courses during the academic year will target graduate students, while summer sessions willalso include K-12 teachers. Another positive impact of the project will be recruitment and training ofstudents from underrepresented groups. These individuals will play a vital role in both the research andeducational components of the project. Finally, the dissemination of results will benefit the academic andpolicy making community. In addition to presenting research results at conferences and workshops, theinformation will be shared with public decision makers.