Examing the 100-Year Floodplain as a Metric of Risk, Loss, and Household Adjustment

该项目研究了百年一遇的洪泛区在预测洪水财产损失方面的有效性，并为评估低洼沿海地区的洪水风险提供了更好的标准。 随着美国的洪水损失继续增加，最近的证据表明，100年一遇的洪泛区（洪水风险和减灾的主要标志）既不准确，也不足以指导社区和家庭作出减轻洪水不利影响的决定。 洪泛区的指定无法有效地捕捉财产损失的可能性，这可能使数百万业主不知道洪水风险，并使当地决策者更难以确保社区发展以有弹性的方式进行。首先，从2000年至2009年在家庭层面的保险财产损失的记录将在空间上检查沿海县的样本沿着墨西哥湾。 其次，预测洪水造成的保险财产损失的统计模型将使用传统上不用于确定洪泛区边界的邻近度和建筑环境措施进行分析。 最后，将对声称在洪泛区内外遭受损失的家庭进行调查，以了解他们对洪水风险的看法以及减轻其潜在不利影响的动机。 这项研究将为决策者提供重要信息，说明如何实施更精确的战略，以减少地方一级的洪灾成本。 提高对洪水风险的认识将使地方能够更好地保护自己免受沿海地区财产和生命损失。 研究结果还将帮助生活在洪泛区以外但仍面临洪水破坏高风险的个人减少他们未来遭受毁灭性损失的机会。 为此，研究项目的一个主要部分将是提供公职人员和当地居民都能容易获得和理解的研究结果。 首先，关于洪水损失和风险地区的数据将与目前作为技术援助和外联工具的现有网络地理信息系统相结合。 其次，将与已成为洪水损失热点的当地社区合作，提高对问题的认识，并提供减少未来损失的选择。第三，这项研究的结果将作为两个大学校园的研究生和本科生学习的一部分带入课堂。 这些方法将确保研究结果有助于地方政府和个人家庭如何更好地减少美国沿海洪水的负面影响。

This project examines the effectives of the 100-year floodplain in predicting property damages from floods and offers improved criteria for assessing risk of inundation in low-lying coastal areas. As flood losses continue to increase in the United States, recent evidence suggests that the 100-year floodplain (the primary marker of flood risk and mitigation) is neither accurate nor sufficient in guiding communities and household decisions to mitigate the adverse impacts of floods. The inability of the floodplain designation to effectively capture the likelihood of property loss has left potentially millions of property owners unaware of the flood risk and has made it more difficult for local decision makers to ensure community development occurs in a resilient manner. First, the record of insured property damage at the household level from 2000-2009 will be spatially examined for a sample of coastal counties along the Gulf of Mexico. Second, statistical models to predict insured property damage from floods will be analyzed using proximity and built environment measures not traditionally used to determine floodplain boundaries. Finally, a survey will be conducted of households claiming losses both in and out of the floodplain to understand the perceptions of flood risks and motivations to mitigate their potential adverse impacts. This research will provide important information to decision makers on how to implement more precise strategies to reduce the costs of floods at the local level. An improved understanding of flood risk will enable localities to better protect themselves against loss of property and lives in coastal areas. Research findings will also help individuals living outside the floodplain, but still at high risk for flood damages reduce the chances they will experience devastating losses in the future. To this end, a major part of the research project will be to deliver findings that can be easily accessed and understood by both public officials and local residents. First, data on flood loss and areas of risk will be integrated with an existing web-based GIS system that currently serves as a technical assistance and outreach tool. Second, local neighborhoods that have become hotspots of flood loss will be worked with to increase awareness of the problem and provide options for reducing future loss. Third, results from the study will be brought into the classroom as part of graduate and undergraduate studies across two college campuses. These approaches will ensure the research findings assist local governments and individual households on how to better reduce the negative impacts of coastal flooding in the US.