Prediction of Coronal Mass Ejections from Measures of Active-Region Nonpotentiality

这项提议的总体目标是继续根据太阳磁图发展太阳活动区非势能的定量测量，并进一步评估这些测量作为活动区日冕物质抛射(CME)的预报因子。在拟议的三年调查期间，PI将执行三个相关的项目，以(1)完善PI的活动区非位势测量作为CME预报因子的排名，(2)调查CME产生对活动区非位势演化的依赖性，以及(3)将PI的分析程序扩展到来自Solis的矢量磁图，以及调查没有太阳黑子的活动区。通过澄清产生日冕物质抛射的条件，这一努力将有助于从物理上更好地了解日冕物质抛射本身，这反过来又将有助于理解宇宙中其他恒星和星系上的许多其他磁爆天体物理事件。这一努力将为社会带来广泛的好处，因为它有助于改进对地球上的日冕物质抛射的预报，从而能够更好地针对地球有效的日冕物质抛射所造成的破坏性空间天气采取防御措施。

The overall objective of this proposal is to continue the development of quantitative measures of the Sun's active-region nonpotentiality from solar magnetograms, and to further evaluate these measures as predictors of active-region coronal mass ejections (CMEs). During the proposed three years' investigation, the PI would carry out three related projects to (1) refine the ranking of the PI's active-region nonpotentiality measures as CME predictors, (2) investigate the dependence of CME production on the evolution of active-region nonpotentiality, and (3) extend the PI's analysis procedure to vector magnetograms from SOLIS, as well as investigate active regions without sunspots. Through clarification of the conditions that produce CMEs, this effort would contribute to better physical understanding of CMEs themselves, which in turn would contribute to understanding many other magnetically explosive astrophysical events, on other stars and in galaxies throughout the universe. This effort would provide broad benefits to society by leading to improved forecasting of Earthward CMEs, which will better allow defensive measures to be taken against the destructive space weather wrought by geoeffective CMEs.