SGER: Developing Statistical Models for the Diffusion of Educational Policies and Interventions

本提案中描述的工作是将可能与教育评估相关的现有扩散数学模型编目，并将它们与现有的统计方法联系起来，这些统计方法解释了扩散过程的非线性形式以及教育系统的分层组织结构。此外，本研究将考察单位（学校、个人）如何在不同的创新采用状态中过渡。最后，将探讨这项工作对教育干预的定量评估的影响，特别是扩大规模的问题。将进行三项探索性研究。第一项研究将从回顾与教育创新研究相关的扩散数学模型开始。这些模型来源于Mahajan & Peterson（1985）的开创性工作。在对相关扩散模型进行编目之后，我们将研究捕捉扩散过程各个方面的一系列统计模型的效用。具体来说，我们将研究离散时间事件历史模型的扩展，作为一种解释教育创新采用率群体差异的方法。第二项研究的前提是，要理解政策和干预措施是如何在系统的各个层次内部和跨层次传播的，就需要了解在系统的各个层次和各个时期占据收养阶层的个人的特征。本研究将检验潜在转变分析作为一种方法，以更全面地了解收养行为的类别，以及如何对收养类别成员如何随时间变化进行建模。第三项研究考察了扩散模型对教育创新评估的影响。也就是说，在任何给定时间点对教育政策或干预措施的评估取决于该时间点采用者的数量和类型。在扩散框架内评价政策和干预的问题类似于评价不平衡的系统。有人认为，对一项政策或干预措施的评价将敏感于这样一个事实，即在测量期间可能不存在稳定的采用平衡。这种敏感性可能对政策和干预措施的定量评价产生深远影响。有人认为，拟议的研究将在关于创新扩散的既有文献与关于教育评价和政策分析的同样既有文献之间提供严格的联系。此外，这里提出的工作是及时的，因为国家的重点是确定在教育干预和扩大问题的背景下什么是有效的。本建议旨在开发方法，以深入了解干预措施扩散的动态，从而有助于评估干预措施。

The work described in this proposal is to catalog existing mathematical models of diffusion that are likely to be of relevance to educational evaluation and relate them to existing statistical methodologies that account for the non-linear form of the diffusion process as well as the hierarchical organizational structure of educational systems. In addition, this research will examine how units (schools, individuals) transition across various states of innovation adoption. Finally, the implications of this work for the quantitative evaluation of educational interventions, and in particular the problem of scale-up, will be explored. Three exploratory studies will be conducted. The first study will begin by reviewing mathematical models of diffusion that are of relevance to the study of educational innovations. These models derive from the seminal work of Mahajan & Peterson (1985). Following the cataloging of relevant diffusion models, we will examine the utility of a series of statistical models that capture various aspects of the diffusion process. Specifically, we will study extensions of discrete time event-history modeling as a method to account for among group variation in the rate of adoption of educational innovations. The second study is based on the premise that understanding how policies and interventions diffuse within and across levels of the system requires an understanding of the characteristics of individuals occupying adoption classes at all levels of the system and over time. This study will examine latent transition analysis as a methodology to more fully understand classes of adoption behavior and how to model how adoption class membership can change over time. The third study examines the implications of diffusion modeling for the evaluation of educational innovations. That is, the evaluation of an educational policy or intervention at any given point in time is dependent on the numbers and types of adopters at that time point. The problem of evaluating policies and interventions within the framework of diffusion is akin to evaluating systems in disequilibria. It is argued that the evaluation of a policy or intervention will be sensitive to the fact that there may not exist a stable equilibrium of adoption during the time of measurement. This sensitivity may have profound effects on quantitative evaluations of policies and interventions. It is argued that the proposed research will provide rigorous links between the established literature on the diffusion of innovations and the equally established literature on educational evaluation and policy analysis. Furthermore, the work proposed here is timely, given the national focus on determining what works in the context of educational interventions and the problem of scale-up. This proposal seeks to develop methodologies that will provide insights into the dynamics of intervention diffusion that can aid in the evaluation of interventions.