SGER: Teleconnection Structure and Evolution in the Coupled Model Simulations

年际变化(包括遥相关)的循环模式将从社区气候系统模式、地球物理流体动力学实验室模式和戈达德空间科学研究所模式中提取，并与它们的观测对应模式密切比较，特别是ENSO(厄尔尼诺-南方涛动)、PNA(太平洋/北美)、NAO/AO(北大西洋涛动/环涛动)和西太平洋(WP)模式，这些模式在当今气候的北方冬季表现明显。陆地/海洋表面温度、海洋热含量、200和850百帕位势、200百帕散度、1000百帕(地面)风以及与之相关的降水型将是相互比较的重点。这些变量构成了监测模拟年际变率质量的最小集合；变量选择将有助于审查热带-温带相互作用、热带和温带盆地的海洋-大气相互作用、水文气候可变性以及全球变暖信号本身。在对变异性模式的成熟阶段结构进行相互比较之后，将对模式演变进行比较分析；这将提供对耦合模拟中潜在变异性机制的真实性的快速、尽管不完整的检查。演变分析将以分月分辨率进行；最好是每五个时间尺度进行。大气环流的一个更基本的描述是纬向对称环流，特别是纬向平均纬向风(U)。(U)纬度-高度结构中看似细微的差异可能会对气候驻波和气候遥相关产生影响，这是由于对流层内/跨对流层的波传播的调制。PI将利用大气模式动力核心(诊断模式)的稳定、线性化版本，通过计算冬季地形环流响应来说明(U)-气候学模型间变化的动力学意义。此外，由于中高纬度冬季(U)的年际变化在最近对流层-平流层相互作用的讨论中占有重要地位，特别是在对流层NAO和全球变暖信号发展的背景下，将对对流层和平流层的(U)变率进行主成分分析。(U)变异性结构中模型间差异的重要性将再次通过诊断性建模来说明。更广泛的影响：这项工作将为评估21世纪全球和区域气候和水资源模型预测建立基线信息。这是环境管理和环境政策决策的重要信息。

The recurrent patterns of interannual variability (teleconnections included) will be extracted from the Community Climate System Model (CCSM), the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) model, and the Goddard Institute of Space Sciences (GISS), coupled simulations and closely compared with their observational counterparts, particularly, ENSO (the El-Nino-Southern Oscillation), PNA (Pacific/North American), NAO/AO (North Atlantic Oscillation/Annular Oscillation), and the Western Pacific (WP) patterns manifest during Northern winters of the present-day climate. The land/ocean surface temperature, ocean heat-content, 200 and 850 hPa geopotential, 200 hPa divergence, 1000 hPa (surface) winds, and the associated precipitation patterns will be the focus of intercomparison. The variables constitute a minimal set for monitoring the quality of simulated interannual variability; the variable choice will facilitate scrutiny of tropical-extratropical interactions, ocean-atmosphere interactions in the tropical and extratropical basins, hydroclimate variability, and of the global warming signal itself. Intercomparison of the variability patterns' mature-phase structure will be followed by comparative analysis of the pattern evolution; this should provide a quick, albeit incomplete, check on the realism of the underlying variability mechanisms in the coupled simulations. The evolution analysis will be conducted at submonthly resolution; preferably, at pentad time scales. An even more fundamental descriptor of the atmospheric general circulation is the zonally symmetric circulation, specially the zonal-mean zonal winds (U). Seemingly subtle differences in the (U) latitude-height structure can be consequential for climatological stationary waves and climate teleconnections, from modulation of wave propagation in/across the troposphere. The PIs will illustrate the dynamical significance of the inter-model variations of (U)-climatology by computing the orographic circulation response during winter, using a steady, linearized version of the atmospheric model's dynamical core (the diagnostic model). Additionally, since interannual variations of (U) in the middle-to-high latitude winters have figured prominently in recent discussions of troposphere-stratosphere interactions, specially, in context of the development of the NAO and global warming signals in the troposphere, a principal component analysis of (U) variability in the troposphere and stratosphere will be conducted. The significance of inter-model differences in the (U)-variability structures will again be illustrated through diagnostic modeling. Broader Impacts:This work will establish the baseline information for evaluating global and regional climate and water resource model projections for the 21st century. This is important information for environmental management and environmental policy decisions.