Climatology of Forecast Skill and Major Forecast Failures over North America and Adjacent Waters

在本项目中，pi将记录北美大陆及其周围海洋地区短期数值预报技能和大预报误差频率的区域差异，并将评估几种国际业务数值模式之间技能的差异。预报技巧和大尺度流态之间的关系也将被检查。此外，对于经历重大预测失败的单个事件，pi将使用多分析集成方法，从模型物理角度探索模型误差对预测误差的影响，以及初始条件误差的影响。本研究将解决以下问题：特定操作预测模型是否经历较少的预测失败，特定区域是否经历较大的预测错误，是否存在特定区域遭受频繁和/或大型预测失败事件，以及这些大型预测失败事件是否与明显的，较大的初始条件错误相关。研究生将参与研究。

In this project the PIs will document regional differences of short-term numerical forecast skill and frequency of large forecast errors for the North American continent and the surrounding ocean areas, and will appraise the differences in skill among several international operational numerical models. The relationship between forecast skill and large-scale flow regime will also be examined. Furthermore, for individual events that experienced major forecast failures, the PIs will explore the effects of model errors in terms of model physics on forecast errors, and the effects of initial condition error by using a multi-analysis ensemble approach. This study will address the questions of whether particular operational forecast models experience fewer forecast failures, whether particular regions experience larger forecast errors, whether there are particular regions that suffer frequent and/or large forecast failure events, and if these large forecast failure events are associated with obvious, large initial condition errors. Graduate students will participate in the research.