Ambiguity Aversion, Malevolent Nature and Unforeseen Contingencies

如果一个投资者正在考虑购买一项资产，并且正在评估投资美国公司与投资Signapore公司的比较优势，那么在其他条件相同的情况下，他可能倾向于选择第一家公司。 这就是“模糊性厌恶”的一个例子;即使两种投资的财务回报是相同的，许多人也会选择更熟悉的投资。最近的实证和实验经济学研究表明，模糊性厌恶出现在许多情况下。 标准的不确定性决策微观经济模型无法解释这些结果。 PI计划一项研究计划，以开发一个一致的和易于处理的歧义规避模型，该模型将联合收割机结合其他学者提出的各种解释到一个单一的框架中。 然后，他将开发该模型的可测试的含义。 我们的目标是确定是否模糊厌恶是由一个愿望，以消除不可预见的突发事件，或通过一个愿望，选择最佳的反应的可能性，最坏的结果将发生。这项研究将导致更好地了解个人如何作出各种各样的投资，储蓄和保险的决定。

An investor who is considering the purchase of an asset and is evaluating the comparative merits of investing in an American firm versus a firm in Signapore may be inclined to prefer the first, all other things being equal. This is an example of "ambiguity aversion"; even when the financial returns from the two investments are identical, many people will prefer the more familar investment.Recent reseach in empirical and experimental economics has demonstrated that ambiguity aversion appears in many contexts. The standard microeconomic model of decisionmaking under uncertainty cannot explain these results. The PI plans a research program to develop a consistent and tractable model of ambiguity aversion that will combine the various explanations advanced by other scholars into a single framwork. He will then develop testable implications of the model. The goal is to determine whether ambiguity aversion is caused by a desire to eliminate unforseen contingencies, or by a desire to choose the optimal response to the possibility that the worst outcome will occur.This research will lead to a better understanding of how individuals make a wide variety of decisions about investments, saving, and insurance.