Analysis of differences in climate niches of the world´s mammals with respect to their phylogenetic positions

气候变化对物种分布的影响的预测假设气候生态位不变。我们目前对气候生态位如何通过进化发展的理解非常有限。本计画将分析全球5488种哺乳动物的气候生态位与其系统位置的关系。该假说认为，密切相关的物种也将有类似的气候生态位，表明气候生态位保护。根据目前的分布和环境数据，我们将量化每个物种的气候生态位，并将其与其最近的亲戚（姐妹物种）进行比较。我们将调查气候生态位的位置是否类似于其他物种的性状，如体重，妊娠期长短或产仔数的遗传限制。哺乳动物生态系统的广泛性、高分辨率的系统发育树、高度的保护相关性和相对知名的地理分布使其成为理想的研究系统。与此同时，我们将利用成功和失败的哺乳动物引进到其原生范围以外的地区的数据来分析短期适应潜力。这将涉及到繁殖以及物种特征，竞争对手的存在和新旧范围的气候匹配。在研究过程中，将发展新的生态位演化分析方法标准，包括随机化检验、虚拟种分析和气候生态位特征追踪。最后，我们将能够具体说明所研究的大量物种对气候变化的适应潜力。

Predictions of effects of climate change on species distributions assume constant climatic niches. Our current understanding of how climate niches developed through evolution is very limited. This project shall analyse how climate niche of the 5488 mammal species worldwide is related to their phylogenetic position. The hypothesis is that closely related species will also have similar climate niches, indicating climate niche conservation. Based on current distributions and environmental data, we shall quantify the climate niche of each species and compare it to that of its closest relative (sister species). We shall investigate whether climate niche position is similarly phylogenetically constrained as other species traits such as body weight, gestation length or litter size. The huge breadth of mammal ecologies, their highly resolved phylogenetic tree, their high conservation relevance and their relatively well-known geographical distribution make them an ideal study system. In parallel, we shall use data on successful and failed mammal introductions to regions outside their native range to analyse short-term adaptation potential. This will be related to phylogeny as well as species traits, presence of competitors and climate matching of old and new ranges. In the process of this study, new methodological standards for the analysis of niche evolution will be developed, including randomisation tests, virtual species analysis and character tracing of climate niche position. In the end, we shall be able to specify the adaptation potential to climate change for a large number of species studied.