Collaborative Research:Epidemic Waves, Landscape Heterogeneity, and Spatial Scale - Plant Disease Models

将进行实地研究，以确定宿主种群规模、宿主空间格局、宿主多样性和初始疫源地的大小如何影响疾病的传播。小麦条锈病将在隔离的、人工接种的田间小区中进行研究，其中宿主变量和初始病灶大小将通过实验进行操纵。将对新引进的大豆锈病的全大陆数据进行评估，并将在爱荷华州的256块商业大豆田中对大豆锈病进行密集、更精细的取样。一系列的数学方法将被用来帮助理解宿主变量和初始疾病病灶的大小如何影响疾病在不同空间尺度上的传播。虽然许多流行病在国家和国际范围内发生，但了解这种大规模的过程仍然是一个挑战。该项目的目标是制定适用于许多疾病的一般原则，以便能够在广泛的空间尺度上预测疾病的传播。这种预测对于制定避免和应对植物、动物和人类流行病的战略至关重要。该项目还将提供有关小麦条锈病和大豆锈病的具体信息，这两种锈病目前在美国都具有重要的经济意义。

Field studies will be conducted to determine how host population size, host spatial pattern, host diversity, and size of initial disease foci affect the spread of disease. Wheat stripe rust will be studied in isolated, artificially inoculated field plots in which host variables and initial focus size will be manipulated experimentally. Continental-wide data from the newly introduced soybean rust disease will be evaluated, and intensive, finer-scaled sampling of soybean rust will be done in 256 commercial soybean fields in Iowa. A range of mathematical approaches will be used to help understand how host variables and size of initial disease foci affect disease spread at different spatial scales. While many epidemics occur at national and international scales, understanding such large-scale processes remains a challenge. The goal of this project is to develop general principles, applicable to many diseases, that will enable prediction of disease spread at a wide range of spatial scales. Such predictions are crucial to developing strategies to avoid and respond to epidemics of plants, animals, and humans. The project also will provide specific information with regards to wheat stripe rust and soybean rust, both of which are currently of great economic importance in the U.S.