HSD: Spatiotemporal Dimensions of Population Change in the Northern Orkney Islands from About 1735 to 2000

关于近代长期人口变化的研究一直以人口过渡理论（DTT）为主导，该理论认为存在着从工业化前的高生育率和高死亡率的农业体制向低生育率和低死亡率的现代工业体制的单向过渡。尽管早期的描述性证据支持数字地面电视，但现在认识到，许多局部人口变化轨迹偏离了其狭隘的预测。此外，数字地面电视根本就不是一种理论，因为它几乎不能解释人口变化背后的机制。该研究项目的目的不仅在于解决工业制度下生育率和死亡率下降的原因，而且还在于确定工业化前的人口制度是如何被拆除的，以及什么新制度取而代之。认识到人口制度具有时间和空间两个维度，该项目将采用跨学科的方法，结合历史人口统计学、民族志、景观考古学和空间分析的方法。该项目将重点关注大约从公元1735年到2000年发生在奥克尼群岛北部的变化。奥克尼群岛是研究这些主题的理想地点，原因如下：(1)至少从公元850年起，奥克尼群岛就一直有人定居。(2)详细的记录允许人口重建和物质条件的重建，可以追溯到18世纪30年代。(3)在过去的275年里，这些岛屿经历了重大的经济和人口变化，1861年人口普查记录的人口高峰为6,062人，而今天只有约1,300人居住在那里。在为期三年的项目期间，调查人员将收集和编码所有相关的人口记录，对农场和家庭进行实地调查，利用遥感和历史地图编制相关的环境和经济数据，并对60岁以上的社区成员进行开放式访谈。这些数据将被合并到一个单一的地理信息系统中，以了解过去两个半世纪以来发生在奥克尼的“人口转型”过程。该项目将人口和经济“现代化”研究的多个领域的模型和方法创新性地结合在一起。历史人口学以前从未与历史考古学一起进行过，两者的结合将使调查人员能够在更大的环境和空间背景下了解人口变化。与活着的线人一起进行的民族志工作将使调查人员能够挖掘丰富的家庭历史和个人对变化的记忆。新的理论模型和统计程序已经开发出来，以支持现场数据的分析、解释和概括，这些模型和程序可以应用于世界其他地区的数据。该研究将对本科生和研究生的教育和培训产生积极影响，因为该项目是与一个由美国国家科学基金会本科生研究经验奖支持的本科生实地学校联合进行的。数篇博士论文将由研究生参与该项目产生。该项目还将对当地社区产生重要的经济影响，因为调查人员正在与社区组织密切合作，建立一个家谱数据库，以支持遗产旅游。由于这项工作将在专业期刊上广泛发表，并在项目网站上向一般公众提供，因此将向广大读者传播关于现代人口转变的科学认识方面的进展。2005财年美国国家科学基金会人类与社会动力学（HSD）竞赛的一个奖项支持了这个项目。所有NSF理事会和办公室都参与了HSD竞赛和HSD奖项组合的协调管理。

Studies of long-term demographic change in the modern period have been dominated by the use of demographic transition theory (DTT), which contents that there is a unidirectional transition from a preindustrial agricultural regime of high fertility and high mortality to a modern industrial regime of low fertility and low mortality. Despite early descriptive evidence supporting DTT, it is now acknowledged that many localized trajectories of demographic change deviate from its narrow predictions. Moreover, DTT is not really a theory at all, because it does little to explain the mechanisms underlying demographic change. The research project is designed to address not only why fertility and mortality declined in the industrial regime but also to identify how a preindustrial demographic regime was dismantled and what new regime took its place. Recognizing that demographic regimes have both temporal and spatial dimensions, this project will use an interdisciplinary approach, incorporating the methods of historical demography, ethnography, landscape archaeology, and spatial analysis. This project will focus on the changes occurring in the northern Orkney Islands from roughly AD 1735 to 2000. The islands are an ideal location to study these topics for several reasons: (1) The Orkneys have been continuously settled from at least AD 850. (2) Detailed records allow for demographic reconstruction and reconstruction of the material conditions going back to the 1730s. (3) The islands have experienced significant economic and demographic changes during the last 275 years, with a peak population of 6,062 persons recorded in the 1861 census, while only about 1,300 persons reside there today. During the three-year term of the project, the investigators will collect and code all relevant demographic records, conduct field survey of farms and households, compile relevant environmental and economic data using remote sensing and historic maps, and conduct open-ended interviews with community members over the age of 60. These data will be combined within a single GIS system to understand the processes of "demographic transition" that have occurred in Orkney over the past two-and-a-half centuries.This project brings to bear an innovative combination of models and methods from several fields on the study of demographic and economic "modernization." Historical demography has not previously been conducted in conjunction with historical archaeology, and the combination of the two will allows the investigators to understand demographic change within its larger environmental and spatial context. Ethnographic work with living informants will permit the investigators to tap rich family histories and personal memories of change. New theoretical models and statistical procedures have been developed to support the analysis, interpretation, and generalization of the field data, and these models and procedures can be applied to data from other parts of the world. The research will have positive impacts on undergraduate and graduate education and training, because the project is being conducted in association with an undergraduate field school supported through an NSF Research Experience for Undergraduates site award. Several doctoral dissertations will result from graduate student participation in the project. The project also will have an important economic impact on the local community, because the investigators are working closely with community organizations to set up a genealogical database to support heritage tourism. Because the work will be widely published in professional journals and made available to the general public on a project website, advances in the scientific understanding of the modern demographic transition will be disseminated to a wide audience. An award resulting from the FY 2005 NSF-wide competition on Human and Social Dynamics (HSD) supports this project. All NSF directorates and offices are involved in the coordinated management of the HSD competition and the portfolio of HSD awards.