EITM: Dynamic General Equilibrium Models of Community Formation: Theory and Empirical Analysis

NSF项目：理论模型的经验启示：Bajari，PatrickTITLE：社区形成的动态一般均衡模型：理论和实证分析本研究项目将建立一个关于住房市场、社区形成和人力资本代际传递的动态随机一般均衡模型，该模型通过同龄人群体效应允许外部性。由于均衡房价向量的高维性和相关的不动点问题，该模型将被数值求解，这是一项具有挑战性的方法任务。这项研究还将通过扩展最近在分析差异化产品需求方面的工作，开发新的方法来估计消费者对同龄人群体和住房的偏好。这对于解决住房模型是必要的，因为在需求模型中，住房是三种类型特征的捆绑：住房的物理特征、社区特征和经济中的代理人观察到的住房的特征，但不是计量经济学家观察到的。根据可观察到的人口统计特征和消费者对产品特征的特定品味，指定和估计了丰富而灵活的消费者偏好函数。随机系数的参数分布不是先验的，而是非参数恢复的。个人投资机构将使用估计的动态一般均衡模型作为社会实验室，研究移民随着时间的推移通过住房市场同化到不同社区的情况。该模型将被用来量化几个政策实验对房价分布、社区结构以及人力资本和福利的长期分配的影响。将研究的政策改革包括美国和墨西哥之间的移民法自由化(这将导致大量讲西班牙语的新家庭进入住房市场)，以及为穷人引入住房补贴。这项研究的结果将为政策制定者提供有关住房市场政策在塑造社区形成和结构方面的有效性。将开发的计算模型将被用作各种社会政策的调查费用，包括为穷人提供住房补贴是否是减少长期社区隔离、长期收入以及由此产生的福利不平等的适当工具。

ABSTRACTPROPOSAL NO: 0339328INSTITUTION: Duke UniversityNSF PROGRAM: EMPIRICAL IMPLICATIONS OF THEORETICAL MODELSPI: Bajari, PatrickTITLE: Dynamic General Equilibrium Models of Community Formation: Theory and Empirical AnalysisThis research project will develop a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the housing market, community formation, and the intergenerational transmission of human capital that allows for externalities through peer group effects. The model will be solved numerically, a challenging methodological task because of the high dimensionality of the equilibrium housing price vector and associated fixed point problem. The research will also develop new methods for estimating consumer preferences for peer groups and housing by extending recent work in the analysis of demand for differentiated products. This is necessary to solve the housing model because in the demand model, a home is a bundle of three types of characteristics: physical characteristics of the home, characteristics of the community and a characteristic of the home observed by the agents in the economy, but not by the econometrician. A rich and flexible consumer preferences function, which depends on observable demographic characteristics and consumer specific tastes for product characteristics, is specified and estimated. The parametric distribution for the randomCoefficients is not specified a priori but recovered non-parametrically.The PIs will then use the estimated dynamic general equilibrium model as a social laboratory to study the assimilation of immigrants into different communities via the housing market over time. The model will be used to quantify the consequences of several policy experiments on the distribution of housing prices, the structure of communities and the long-run distribution of human capital and welfare. The policy reforms that will be studied include a liberalization of immigration laws between theU.S. and Mexico (which would lead to a substantial inflow of new Spanish speakinghouseholds into the housing market) and the introduction of housing subsidies for the poor.The result of this research will provide policy makers about the effectiveness of housing market policies in shaping the formation and structure of communities. The computational model that will be developed will be used as an investigative toll in a wide variety of social policies, including whether housing subsidies for the poor is an appropriate tool to reduce long-run segregation of communities, long-run income and thus welfare inequality.