Identification and Empirical Inference

研究者计划扩展他最近关于治疗选择的研究，部分了解治疗反应，这是他早期关于部分识别的工作的结果。研究的一部分将解决一般的方法论问题，另一部分将调查社会规划的具体实质性问题。他还将继续他长期以来对部分识别本身的研究计划。智力优点：研究人员对识别的研究是故意保守的。传统的方法是将联合收割机与足够强的假设相结合，以确定部分总体参数的抽样过程。这样的假设往往没有很好的动机，实证研究人员经常争论他们的有效性。保守的分析使研究人员能够从现有的数据中学习，而不会强加站不住脚的假设。它使研究人员能够建立一个共识领域，这些研究人员可能对什么样的假设是合适的持有不同的信念。它也清楚地表明了现有数据的局限性。研究人员对治疗选择的分析同样保守。他的研究表明，社会规划者和其他决策者如何能够在不强加站不住脚的假设的情况下，连贯地科普由识别问题引起的模糊性和从样本数据中进行统计推断的必要性所带来的选择难题。这是通过使用成熟的原则，appropriately通过应用最小最大遗憾criterion.broader影响：许多持久的公共政策争议反映了不同的信念ofgovernment政策对社会的影响。这种不同的信念往往表现在决斗的政策研究，使用不同的分析方法或数据来源，以达到不同的政策结论。每项研究都可以用自己的术语来解释，每项研究都将数据与图表相结合，得出逻辑上有效的结论。然而，可能没有办法确定哪个研究（如果有的话）做出了现实的假设，哪个（如果有的话）得出了经验上正确的结论。研究者保守的实证推理方法和处理方式的选择，可以使公众更好地评价现有政策研究的可信度，增强未来政策研究的可信度，提高决策质量

The investigator plans to expand his recent research on treatment choice with partial knowledge of treatment response, which has developed out of his earlier work on partial identification. Part of the research willaddress general methodological questions and another part will investigate specific substantive problems ofsocial planning. He also will continue his longstanding program of research on partial identification per se.Intellectual Merit: The investigators research on identification is deliberately conservative. The traditionalway to cope with sampling processes that partially identify population parameters has been to combine theavailable data with assumptions strong enough to yield point identification. Such assumptions often are notwell motivated, and empirical researchers often debate their validity. Conservative analysis enablesresearchers to learn from the available data without imposing untenable assumptions. It enables establishmentof a domain of consensus among researchers who may hold disparate beliefs about what assumptions areappropriate. It also makes plain the limitations of the available data.The investigators analysis of treatment choice is similarly conservative. His research shows howsocial planners and other decision makers can cope coherently with difficult problems of choice underambiguity induced by identification problems and the necessity of statistical inference from sample data,without imposing untenable assumptions. This is achieved using well-established principles of statisticaldecision theory, particularly through application of the minimax-regret criterion.Broader Impacts: Many persistent public policy controversies reflect divergent beliefs about the effects ofgovernment policy on society. Such divergent beliefs are often manifest in dueling policy studies that usedifferent analytical approaches or data sources to reach different policy conclusions. Each study may makesense in its own terms, each combining data with conjectures to draw logically valid conclusions. However,there may be no way to determine which study (if either) makes realistic conjectures and which (if either)draws empirically correct conclusions. The investigators conservative approach to empirical inference andtreatment choice can enable the public to better evaluate the credibility of existing policy studies, enhancethe credibility of future policy research, and improve the quality of policymaking