Evaluation of the Great Plains Low-level Jet and Its Relationship to Mid-West Precipitation in Coupled General Circulation Model (GCM) Simulations of the 20th and 21st Centuries

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This project combines a phenomenological study of the role of the Great Plains low-level jet (GPLLJ) in the hydrologic cycle of the central United States with a diagnostic subproject for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which is the premier organization for assessments of the science of climate change. Phase one is an evaluation of the ability of many coupled (ocean, atmosphere and land all included) global climate models to simulate the salient features of the GPLLJ. Phase two is to relate this to elements of the hydrologic cycle (surface and lower atmosphere) in this region. These phases are largely a validation and dynamical study of current state-of-the-art climate simulations. Finally, integrations from climate change projection scenarios will be examined to assess possible future impacts on the GPLLJ and possible implications for the region's hydrology (and by association, agriculture). This is a one-year study to support summer time for an undergraduate (3 months), a research associate (2 months) and one month of the PI's time. The undergraduate is the driving force behind this project, who will make this project the basis of an Honors Program research project in Economics. This highly focused study is expected to generate one paper. Beyond education, there are broader impacts in the examination of consequences of climate change on regional hydrology and agricultural impacts in the nation's breadbasket.