CNH: Effects of Cross-Boundary Processes on Human-Nature Dynamics in Wolong Nature Reserve for Giant Pandas

要成功地平衡野生动物保护和人类福祉，不仅需要对特定的人-自然耦合系统(如自然保护区)内的过程有充分的了解，而且还需要对跨越系统边界的过程有充分的了解。虽然我们对生物物理跨界过程，如营养物质流动和外来物种入侵的了解在过去十年中有了显著的进步，但迫切需要关于社会过程的工作。影响世界各地自然保护区的两个日益重要的跨界社会进程是农村-城市劳动力迁移(农村居民为获得城市就业机会而迁移)和生态旅游(农村地区的自然旅游，通常由城市居民进行)。这些现象在中国这样的发展中国家尤为严重，而且发展迅速。由于过去30年的经济发展，这些国家的人口流动性正经历着前所未有的增长。然而，关于移民和生态旅游对人-自然动态的互动影响，人们知之甚少。该项目将有助于更好地了解这些相互作用的过程对卧龙自然保护区人与自然耦合系统(森林/熊猫栖息地和当地居民)的影响，卧龙自然保护区是保护世界著名濒危大熊猫中国的旗舰保护区。该项目将采用系统方法来解决四个相互关联的目标：(1)评价生态旅游对人-自然耦合系统的影响；(2)评估劳动力迁移对人-自然耦合系统的影响；(3)了解劳动力迁移和生态旅游对人-自然耦合系统的交互影响；(4)对移民和生态旅游对人-自然耦合系统的长期影响进行建模和模拟。研究中使用的方法包括实地观察、与利益攸关方面对面的访谈、地理信息系统、遥感、全球定位系统、统计工具以及系统建模和模拟。该项目将与从K-12到研究生院的正规教育以及从当地到国际层面的利益相关者和普通公众的参与紧密结合起来。该项目将有助于从理论上理解复杂的人-自然系统动力学，重点关注由跨界过程形成的关键特征，如非线性、阈值、反馈和不确定性。该项目还将在方法论上作出贡献，推动最先进的基于代理人的建模，以产生一个可上网的模型，探索跨界进程的复杂性。在研究成果的应用方面，该项目将有助于完善卧龙大熊猫栖息地保护政策，为制定政策以平衡世界上人口最多的S国家的大熊猫保护需求和经济发展提供洞察力。由于世界各地不断升级的跨界过程，以及迫切需要制定有效的政策来应对日益复杂的人-自然动态，该发现也将引起许多其他系统的普遍兴趣。

Successfully balancing wildlife conservation and human well-being requires sound knowledge of processes operating not only within a particular coupled human-natural system, such as a nature reserve, but also of processes operating across system boundaries. While our understanding of biophysical cross-boundary processes, such as nutrient flows and invasions of exotic species, has improved markedly over the past decade, work on social processes is urgently needed. Two increasingly important cross-boundary social processes impacting nature reserves around the world are rural-urban labor migration (migration of residents from rural areas for urban employment opportunities) and ecotourism (nature-based tourism in rural areas often by city dwellers). These phenomena are especially critical and rapidly evolving in developing countries such as China, which are experiencing unprecedented increases in human mobility due to economic development over the past three decades. However, little is known about the interactive effects of migration and ecotourism on human-nature dynamics. This project will contribute to a better understanding of the effects of these interacting processes on the coupled human-natural system (forests/panda habitat and local residents) in the Wolong Nature Reserve, the flagship reserve for conservation of the world-famous endangered Giant Pandas of China. The project will take a systems approach to address four interrelated objectives: (1) evaluate the effects of ecotourism on the coupled human-natural system; (2) assess the effects of labor migration on the coupled human-natural system; (3) understand the interactive effects of labor migration and ecotourism on the coupled human-natural system, and (4) model and simulate the long-term effects of migration and ecotourism on the coupled human-natural system. The methods to be used in this study include field observations, face-to-face interviews with stakeholders, geographic information systems, remote sensing, global positioning systems, statistical tools, and systems modeling and simulation. The project will tightly integrate research with both formal education from K-12 to graduate school, and with engagement of stakeholders and the general public from local to international levels.This project will contribute to the theoretical understanding of complex human-natural system dynamics, concentrating on crucial characteristics such as nonlinearity, thresholds, feedbacks, and uncertainty that are shaped by cross-boundary processes. The project will also make methodological contributions by advancing the state-of-the-art in agent-based modeling in producing a web-accessible model exploring the complexity of cross-boundary processes. With respect to the application of research results, the project will contribute to improved policy for the conservation of panda habitat in Wolong, providing insight for designing policies that balance the needs of panda conservation and economic development in the world''s most populous nation. The findings will also be of general interest to many other systems due to escalating cross-boundary processes around the world and the urgent need to develop effective policies for addressing increasingly complex human-nature dynamics.