Reconstruction and Prediction of Ultraviolet and Total Solar Irradiance

PI将使用自那项研究以来可用的两个新数据库来确定他之前2002年的紫外线通量和总太阳辐照度(TSI)重建的可靠性。他将比较他2002年的1915-1999年间的重建(他在那里使用了Mt.目前，加州大学洛杉矶分校由国家科学基金会资助对1915-1984年期间的MTW数据进行了重新数字化，并对Kodaikanal(印度)钙K档案1907-1995年期间的数据进行了手工缩减和数字化。为了加快数据比较的速度，国际和平研究所将在美国组织一个开放的国际研讨会，让社会各界广泛参与。PI还将使用由英国皇家格林威治天文台(RGO)在1874年至1976年间编制的白光光斑记录，将他的辐照度重建时间向后再延长50%。在RGO观测期间，太阳黑子周期早期的光斑面积和太阳黑子面积的比率被证明是一个很好的预测太阳黑子周期幅度的指标。PI将在1976年RGO记录结束后获得的白光图像上测量这一比率，以测试(并可能扩展)这一太阳黑子活动预报器的实用性。这项研究对气候研究和对全球变暖观测的解释很重要。该项目提出了一项重建、物理描述并最终预测地球太阳辐射输入变化的计划。国际和平协会就这一主题发表了大量出版物，并积极开展公众宣传活动。他于1995年在马萨诸塞州纳汉特建立了东点太阳天文台，并在当地组织了一个由NASA赞助的儿童夏季天文项目。

The PI will ascertain the reliability of his prior 2002 UV flux and total solar irradiance (TSI) reconstructions, using two new data bases that have become available since that study. He will compare his 2002 reconstructions for the period 1915-1999 (where he used Mt. Wilson (MTW) and Sacramento Peak Ca K images), with results now emerging from UCLA's NSF-funded re-digitization of MTW data for the period 1915-1984, as well as with those from manual reduction and digitization of data for the period 1907-1995 from the Kodaikanal (India) Ca K archive. In order to expedite this data comparison, the PI will organize an open international workshop in the US for wide community participation. The PI will also use the white light facular record, compiled by the Royal Greenwich Observatory (RGO) in the United Kingdom between 1874 and 1976, to extend his irradiance reconstruction backward in time by a further 50%. The ratio of facular and sunspot areas early in a sunspot cycle has been shown to be a good predictor of sunspot cycle amplitude during the RGO observation period. The PI will measure this ratio on white light images obtained after the end of the RGO record in 1976, to test (and potentially extend) the utility of this sunspot activity predictor.This research is important to climate studies and to the interpretation of global warming observations. This project presents a plan for reconstructing, physically describing, and ultimately predicting solar radiative input variations to the Earth. The PI has published copiously on this subject and has been active in public outreach activities. He founded the East Point Solar Observatory in 1995 in Nahant, Massachusetts, and has organized a local NASA-sponsored children's summer astronomy program.