Economic Globalization and Mass Politics in Advanced Industrial Democracies

当今时代是由全球化定义的。然而，除了认识到公民意识到世界经济影响着他们的生活之外，学者、政策制定者和公众一般对暴露在世界市场上对选举民主的影响知之甚少。对发达工业国家的当代分析通常得出结论，民主在当今世界经济中的作用并不比以前更差--甚至可能更好。然而，支持这些结论的证据仍然是间接的，这是从对高度汇总的政治和经济数据的分析得出的。除了这些分析之外，这项研究将是第一次考察市场一体化对选举政治的影响。早先的研究考虑全球化是否以及如何影响公共政策、再分配和经济表现，这项研究调查全球化是否以及如何影响代议制民主。通过这样做，这项研究将重新引导对全球化政治的研究，从市场敞口和政策结果之间的关系转向考虑公民对世界经济的看法。受民意研究进展的启发，这项研究提出了几个问题：公民对全球化了解多少？它如何影响他们的政策偏好、政策归属和投票决定？对世界经济的看法是否因特定的群体或阶层而异？如果是这样的话，对政治竞争的影响是什么？政党如何确定对世界经济的立场？政客们的立场是连贯的，还是以党内高度分裂为特征？归根结底，全球化如何影响政治精英的政策代表？为解决这些问题，将在十个对世界经济有广泛政治、体制和经验的民主国家进行具有全国代表性的民意调查。这些国家是澳大利亚、加拿大、丹麦、法国、德国、英国、荷兰、新西兰、瑞典和美国。还将通过使用专家调查来收集这十个民主国家政治精英的意见数据。关于大众和精英态度的数据结合在一起，将为学术界提供工具，以调查有关世界经济影响的信念是基于个人经验，还是公众态度是由政治领导人的暗示塑造的。数据将使用各种统计技术进行分析，包括“完全知情”偏好的模拟、多项式选择模型、辅助变量回归和多水平建模。虽然“全球化”经常在公共话语中被提及为21世纪的一个定义特征，但除了轶事般的叙述之外，我们对世界经济如何影响选民对民主和人民主权的看法知之甚少。这项研究的发现有望缩小夸张与我们对全球化和大众政治的实际了解之间的差距。结果将有助于确定市场一体化是否像目前的许多研究所暗示的那样有利于民主，或者超越国界的经济增长是否有害于健康的大众政治。

The present era is defined by globalization. However, beyond recognizing that citizens are aware that the world economy affects their lives, academics, policymakers, and the public in general knows very little about the effect of exposure to world markets for electoral democracy. Contemporary analyses of advanced industrial countries generally conclude that democracy functions no worse-and possibly better-in today's worldwide economy than in previous times. The evidence supporting such conclusions, however, remains indirect, extrapolated from analyses of highly aggregated political and economic data. Parting from these analyses, this study will be the first to examine the implications of market integration for electoral politics. Where earlier studies consider whether and how globalization matters for public policy, redistribution, and economic performance, this study investigates whether and how globalization matters for representative democracy. In doing so, this research will redirect the study of the politics of globalization, away from the relationship between market exposure and policy outcomes and toward a consideration of how citizens perceive of the world economy.Informed by advances in the study of public opinion, this project poses several questions: What do citizens know about globalization? How does it affect their policy preferences, policy attributions, and vote decisions? Do perceptions of the world economy vary according to particular groups or classes, and if so, what are the implications for political competition? How do political parties craft positions on the world economy? Do politicians have coherent positions or are they characterized by high levels of intra-party division? Ultimately, how does globalization affect policy representation by political elites? To address these questions, nationally-representative public opinion surveys will be conducted in ten democracies having a range of political institutional and experiences with the world economy. These are Australia, Canada, Denmark, France, Germany, Great Britain, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Sweden, and the United States. Data will also be collected on the opinions of political elites in these same ten democracies through the use of expert surveys. The combination of data on mass and elite attitudes will give the scholarly community the tools to investigate whether beliefs about the effects of the world economy are based on personal experience or whether public attitudes are shaped by cues from political leaders. Data will be analyzed using a variety of statistical techniques, including simulation of "fully-informed" preferences, models of multinomial choice, instrumental variables regression, and multilevel modeling. While "globalization" is often mentioned in public discourse as a defining feature of the 21st century, we know little beyond anecdotal accounts about how the world economy influences voter perceptions of democracy and popular sovereignty. Findings from this study promise to close the gap between hyperbole and what we actually know about globalization and mass politics. Results will help determine whether market integration is conducive to democracy, as much of the current research implies, or whether the growth of the economy beyond national borders is harmful to healthy mass politics.