Financial Frictions and Monetary Policy: Accounting for the Behavior of Small and Large Firms over the Business Cycle

智力价值：货币经济学的一个核心问题是，货币政策如何影响商业周期中的实际活动。一种普遍的观点是，它通过信贷渠道实现这一点，通过影响银行的借贷利率，并通过影响公司的资产负债表，特别是对进入金融市场的有限的公司。该提案描述了三个项目，旨在调查信贷渠道的数量重要性以及信贷渠道理论模型对货币政策实施的影响。第一个提出的项目是经验性的，分析了企业规模分布的景气周期特征、价格-成本边际、劳动生产率、借贷成本等财务约束指标，所有这些都是由企业规模决定的。关注公司规模的动机是，较大的公司更容易进入金融市场。这一分析涵盖了美国战后和大萧条时期广泛使用的新数据，以及其他一些国家的战后数据。自20世纪70年代以来，PI已经获得了人口普查局的批准，可以获得工厂和公司层面的广泛详细的数据收集。将使用这些数据和来自公开来源的数据构建一个小组，跟踪植物的行为及其相关公司的特征。初步研究结果表明，在整个商业周期中，小公司和大公司(进入资本市场的途径非常不同)的行为非常相似，但在货币收缩之后，小公司相对于大公司的收缩不成比例。第二个项目建立了一个与第一个项目的结果一致的模型。在该模型中，金融摩擦影响营运资本的使用，特别是对小公司来说。大公司受到这些摩擦的影响较小，因为它们更容易进入公共金融市场。货币紧缩对小企业的影响不成比例，并扭曲了它们相对于其他投入的营运资本使用。在整个商业周期中，只要货币政策适当宽松，生产率冲击对这两类公司的影响都是相似的。该模型的初步版本表明，虽然它很有希望，但可能需要其他机制来放大冲击波的影响。第三个项目旨在开发一种放大机制。我们描述了一个模型，在这个模型中，小公司约束大公司的垄断力量。金融摩擦对小企业的影响不成比例。在经济衰退中，金融摩擦加剧，小企业的边际成本相对于大企业的边际成本上升。经济变得缺乏竞争力，由此产生的扭曲提供了一种可能的放大机制。此外，在模型中，劳动力楔形在经济衰退中的上升与数据中的一样。更广泛的影响：更广泛的影响是，这些项目将有助于改善商业周期中货币政策的实施。这些项目还将有助于制定针对银行和金融服务业的监管政策，并有助于制定针对新公司和小公司的政策。这里描述的研究将被广泛传播。它将在学术期刊、美联储系统的出版物以及面向财政和监管政策制定者的出版物上发表。

Intellectual Merit: A central question in monetary economics is how monetary policy affects real activity over the business cycle. One widely held view is that it does so through the credit channel, by affecting the rates at which banks borrow and lend, and by affecting the balance sheets of firms, particularly for firms with limited access to financial markets. This proposal describes three projects aimed at investigating the quantitative importance of the credit channel and the implications of theoretical models of the credit channel for the conduct of monetary policy. The first proposed project is empirical and analyzes the business cycle characteristics of the size distribution of firms, price-cost margins, labor productivity, borrowing costs and other measures of financial constraints, all by firm size. The focus on firm size is motivated by the idea that larger firms have better access to financial markets. This analysis covers widely-used and new data for the postwar period and the Great Depression for the United States as well as postwar data for a number of other countries. The PI's have obtained approval from the Census Bureau for access to an extensive detailed collection of data at the plant and firm level since the 1970s. A panel tracking the behavior of plants and the characteristics of their associated firms will be constructed using this data and data from publicly available sources. Preliminary findings suggest that, over the business cycle, small and large firms (with very different access to capital markets) behave very similarly, but following monetary contractions small firms contract disproportionately relative to large forms.The second project builds a model consistent with the findings of the first project. In the model, financial frictions affect the use of working capital, particularly for small firms. Larger firms are less affected by these frictions because they have greater access to public financial markets. A monetary contraction disproportionately affects small firms and distorts their use of working capital relative to other inputs. Over the business cycle, productivity shocks affect both types of firms similarly as long as monetary policy is appropriately accommodative. Preliminary versions of the model suggest that while it is promising other mechanisms may be needed to amplify the e¤ects of shocks.The third project is intended to develop an amplification mechanism. We describe a model in which small firms discipline the monopoly power of large firms. Financial frictions disproportionately affect small firms. In recessions, financial frictions worsen and small firms marginal costs rise relative to those of large firms. The economy becomes less competitive and the resulting distortions provide a possible amplification mechanism. Furthermore, in the model, the labor wedge rises in recessions much as it does in the data.Broader Impacts: The broader impacts are that the projects will help improve the conduct of monetary policy over the business cycle. The projects will also help in the design of regulatory policy aimed at the banking and financial services industry and in the design of policies aimed at new and small firms. The research described here will be disseminated broadly. It will be published in academic journals as well as in publications by the Federal Reserve System and publications which are intended for fiscal and regulatory policymakers.