Collaborative Research: Understanding Continental/Oceanic Transition of Mesoscale Convective Systems and Tropical Cyclogenesis during the African Multidisciplinary Analysis

本研究的主要目的是：(a)数值模拟西非季风系统的重要天气特征，包括非洲和热带偏东急流、长寿命中尺度对流系统和东大西洋热带气旋形成；(b)应用资料同化，以便在中尺度对流系统和热带气旋形成的数值模拟中，更好地量化和校正模式偏差；(c)在模拟撒哈拉空气层暴发的情况时，在数值模式中使用不同的微物理方案进行敏感性研究。这项研究将促进对mcs过渡过程的理解，并有助于确定天气研究与预报（WRF）模式在模拟西非季风方面的优缺点。知识优势：该项目将：(1)在2006年非洲季风多学科分析（AMMA）期间，对离开非洲海岸线并形成热带风暴黛比和飓风海伦的热带扰动进行建模研究，这些热带扰动起源于西非的mcs。(2)将广泛的上游原位测量（如高分辨率地面和高空观测网）纳入2006年以来选定案例的数据同化实验，并利用下游飞机测量（即NASA DC-8和NOAA G-IV和P-3飞机）验证模拟结果。(3)在SAL影响下，对大陆地区MCSs及其向海洋环境过渡进行高分辨率模拟调查。(4)在塞内加尔达喀尔的谢赫·安塔·迪奥普大学为研究目的实施世界自然资源基金模式。更广泛的影响：拟议的活动对于了解东大西洋热带气旋的形成以及改善这些风暴的预测非常重要。这项研究将加强佛罗里达理工学院、霍华德大学和谢赫·安踏·迪奥普大学之间的伙伴关系，提高人力、技术和物理能力，以便在天气和区域气候过程领域开展教育和研究工作。该项目将资助两名博士研究生，一名在佛罗里达理工学院，另一名在霍华德大学。在人的尺度上，来自传统上代表性不足的群体（非洲人和西班牙裔美国人）的学生将有独特的机会处理来自国际实地实验的数据，同时，该项目将直接增加西非研究人员在大气科学方面的能力。将努力扩展到研究和教育之外，并解决使用中尺度模式进行天气预报的业务问题。最后，该项目将开启西非天气预报的新篇章，那里目前还没有使用中尺度模式进行天气预报；相反，这些地区的预报目前是基于在欧洲或美国运行的数值天气预报模式。运行它们自己的模型并使其适应其区域特点的能力将大大提高非洲的预报能力。

The primary objectives of this research are: (a) to numerically simulate important weather features of the West African monsoon system including, the African and tropical easterly Jets, long-lived mesoscale convective systems, and tropical cyclogenesis in the Eastern Atlantic; (b) to apply data assimilation for better quantifying and correcting model biases as they relate to numerical simulation of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) and tropical cyclone genesis; and (c) to conduct sensitivity studies using different microphysical schemes in the numerical model when simulating cases with Saharan Air Layer (SAL) outbreaks. This research will advance the understanding of the MCSs transition processes as well as help identify the strengths and weaknesses of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model as it relates to simulating the West African monsoon. Intellectual Merits: This project will: (1) Undertake modeling studies of tropical disturbances that exited the African Coastline and formed Tropical Storm Debby, and Hurricane Helene, which originated from MCSs in West Africa during the 2006 African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA) period. (2) Incorporate extensive upstream in situ measurements (e.g., high resolution surface and upper air observation networks) into data assimilation experiments for selected cases from 2006 and to validate the simulation results with downstream aircraft measurements (i.e., NASA DC-8 and NOAA G-IV and P-3 aircraft) (3) Undertake high-resolution modeling investigations of MCSs over continental areas and their transition to oceanic environments under the influence of the SAL. (4) Implement the WRF model at Cheikh Anta Diop University in Dakar, Senegal for research purposes.Broader Impacts: The proposed activity is important in understanding tropical cyclone formation in the eastern Atlantic, as well as improving the prediction of these storms. This research will enhance the partnership and increase the human, technical, and physical capacity, between Florida Institute Technology, Howard University, and Cheikh Anta Diop University for undertaking educational and research efforts in the area of weather and regional climate processes. This project will fund two Ph.D. level graduate students, one at Florida Institute of Technology and one at Howard University. On the human scale, students from traditionally underrepresented groups (African and Hispanic Americans) will have the unique opportunity to work with data from an international field experiment and at the same time, the project will directly increase human capacity in the atmospheric sciences for West African researchers. There will be an effort to extend beyond research as well as education and address operational issues of weather predictions using mesoscale models. Finally, this project will open up a new chapter in weather prediction in West Africa, where mesoscale models currently are not used in weather prediction; instead, forecasts in these regions are currently based on numerical weather forecasting models that are run in either Europe or the United States. The capability to run their own models and adapt them to the characteristics of their region will significantly improve African forecasting abilities.