Firm Heterogeneity and Firm Exporting Dynamics

该项目将模拟和研究出口企业在全球经济环境中的动态行为。为此，该项目将利用理论和实证数据。首先，扩展了具有企业异质性的主力贸易理论框架。更准确地说，它将模拟公司面临的需求，并在该框架中加入可处理的公司层面动态。其次，它将用关于企业销售动态的既定事实来检验理论模型的结果。第三，该项目将利用巴西出口公司在各个目的地的详细销售数据，研究贸易自由化前后公司的销售情况。在过去的几十年里，采用恒定弹性“对多样性的热爱”需求的模型已经成为国际贸易理论中非常有用的工具。然而，最近的研究表明，这些模型不能解释自由化之前很少但积极的贸易的商品和公司的高增长率。该项目将开发具有“热爱多样性”需求框架的理想属性的替代需求公式，并能够解决其主要困境。此外，该项目将利用丰富的数据集来研究这些新模型的预测。目标和智力价值：这个项目的目的是阐明出口公司随时间和贸易自由化事件之后的行为。受助人与他的合著者一起，旨在开发理论框架，在企业层面动态的背景下对企业的需求侧进行建模。先前的理论结果表明，该理论在密切预测美墨贸易自由化事件的货物贸易流动方面取得了成功。除了先前的理论工作之外，该项目已经采取步骤建立了一个理论框架，该框架可以解释公司销售动态的一系列附加事实。初步结果表明，国内生产率进步的模型可以很好地解释国内市场的营业额和增长，以及观察到的大部分营业额和增长进入个别目的地。通过使用这一建模框架和巴西按目的地出口销售的公司层面数据，该项目将揭示贸易自由化时期出口商的行为。此外，该项目将开发一个理论框架，出口商学习国外需求，以研究学习对动态出口决策的影响。更广泛的影响：过去几十年来，贸易流动的大量增加使公众对全球一体化的辩论处于最前沿。这个项目的研究结果将有助于评价贸易自由化事件，以预测哪些公司和部门受这些事件的影响最大。鉴于销售额小的公司往往增长迅速，对其销售额的预测对政策分析至关重要。

The project will model and study the dynamic behavior of exporting firms in a global economic environment. To this end, the project will make use of both theory and empirical data. First, it will extend the workhorse theoretical trade framework with firm heterogeneity. More precisely, it will model the demand that firms face and add tractable firm-level dynamics into that framework. Second, it will test the results of the theoretical model with well established facts on the dynamics of firm sales. Third, the project will study the sales of firms before and after trade liberalization episodes using detailed data on the sales of Brazilian exporting firms into individual destinations. Over the past decades, models that employ a constant elasticity "love for variety" demand have become an extremely useful tool in the theory of international trade. However, recent research has shown that these models cannot explain the large growth rates of goods and firms with little, but positive, trade before liberalization. This project will develop alternative demand formulations that have the desirable properties of the "love for variety" demand framework and are also able to tackle with its main quandaries. Moreover, the project will make use of rich datasets to look at the predictions of these new models.Objectives and intellectual merit: The aim of this project is to illuminate the behavior of exporting firms over time and after trade liberalization episodes. The grantee, together with his co-authors, aims to develop theoretical frameworks that model the demand side of the firm in a setting with firm-level dynamics. Previous theoretical results show the success of the theory in closely predicting trade flows of goods for the US-Mexico trade liberalization episode. Beyond prior theoretical work, the project has already taken steps on building a theoretical framework that accounts for a series of additional facts on the dynamics of sales of firms. Preliminary results showthat the model with domestic productivity advances can account very well for the turnover and growth in the domestic market as well as for a large part of the observed turnover and growth into individual destinations. By using this modeling framework and Brazilian firm-level data on exporting sales by destination, the project will shed light to the behavior of exporters in trade liberalization episodes. Additionally, the project will develop a theoretical framework where exporters learn the foreign demand in order to study the implications of learning on dynamic exporting decisions.Broader Impact: The vast increase of trade flows over the past decades have put the public debate for global integration in the forefront. The findings of this project will be relevant to the evaluation of trade liberalization episodes in predicting which firms and sectors are mostly affected by these events. Given that firms having small sales tend to grow fast, predictions on their sales become critical for policy analysis.