Doctoral Dissertation Research in Economics: Industry Clusters, Trade, and Growth

产业集群、贸易与增长经济学家早就认识到，贸易的核心效应是改变经济中的产业组合。当产业具有异质性时，无论是在生产率增长潜力方面，还是在产生提高其他产业生产率的溢出效应的能力方面，这些变化都会影响一个国家的增长率。简单的观察以及最近的经验证据表明，这种异质性在很大程度上存在。该项目的目标是了解贸易如何通过影响经济中的产业构成来影响增长。产业集群是指集群内的各产业对集群内的其他产业具有显著的生产率溢出效应的产业群，本研究将特别关注产业集群的作用。理论上的贡献是相当不错的发展。研究结果表明，如果贸易能够集中产业或加强集群，就可能提高所有贸易经济体的增长率。相反，如果贸易削弱了产业集群，它可能会降低所有贸易经济体的增长。这些结果是新的，并与以前的研究相矛盾，如Young（1991）和松山（1992）的研究，他们采用了更多的限制性和不太现实的假设。一个重要的含义是，贸易对增长的影响主要取决于经济中的初始产业和产业集群的模式。该项目的实证部分仍处于起步阶段，涉及构建一个新的数据集，描述英国兰开夏郡从工业革命到现在的经济演变。兰开夏郡是工业革命的发源地，它是贸易驱动和集群式发展的一个成功案例。选择这种情况的另一个原因是可用的数据丰富。这些数据将被用来说明理论所描述的机制，并测试其预测。智力价值这个项目的智力价值取决于它所解决的问题的重要性。随着世界变得更加全球化，各国关于贸易政策的决定将变得越来越重要。东亚最近的经验表明，贸易可以成为增长的强大引擎，但在其他情况下，我们看到贸易不一定导致增长。PI的工作为评估贸易的影响提供了一个新的分析框架，并建议如何利用贸易、技术和产业政策来利用贸易的力量创造增长。此外，研究结果表明，当贸易伙伴协调设计适当的政策时，所有贸易伙伴都能受益。更广泛的影响这项工作的更广泛的影响将通过其对贸易政策以及相关技术和产业政策的影响而感受到。由于几乎每个国家都参与重要的贸易关系，因此，提高各国制定促进增长的贸易政策的能力的任何知识都将具有广泛的适用性。一旦完成，PI打算通过学术出版物和侧重于接触政策制定者的渠道传播结果。

Industry Clusters, Trade, and GrowthEconomists have long recognized that a central effect of trade is to change the set of industries in an economy. When industries are heterogeneous, either in their potential for productivity growth, or in their ability to generate spillovers that improve productivity in other industries, these changes will affect a country's growth rate. Simple observation, as well as recent empirical evidence, suggests that such heterogeneity exists to a significant degree. The goal of this project is to understand how trade affects growth through its affect on the composition of industries in an economy. Particular attention will be paid to the role of industry clusters, by which is meant groups of industries where each industry in the cluster has significant productivity spillovers to other cluster industries.The PI addresses this problem using both theoretical and empirical tools. The theoretical contribution is fairly well developed. The results suggest that trade may increase the growth rate of all trading economies, if it concentrates industries or strengthens clusters. Conversely, trade may decrease growth in all trading economies if it weakens industry clusters. These results are new and contradict previous studies, such as those by Young (1991) and Matsuyama (1992), who apply more restrictive and less realistic assumptions. An important implication is that the effect of trade on growth depends crucially on the initial set of industries in an economy and the pattern of industry clusters. The empirical portion of this project, which is still in its infancy, involves constructing a new data set describing the evolution of the economy of Lancashire County, England, from the Industrial Revolution to the present. Lancashire County, birthplace of the industrial revolution, is interesting as a clear case of successful trade-driven and cluster-based development. Another reason for choosing this case is the wealth of data available. These data will be used to illustrate the mechanisms described by the theory, and to test its predictions.Intellectual MeritThe intellectual merit of this project rests on the importance of the question it addresses. As the world becomes more globalized the decisions countries make regarding trade policy will become more and more important. The recent experience of East Asia suggests that trade can be a powerful engine for growth, yet in other cases we see that trade need not lead to growth. The PI's work provides a new analytical framework for assessing the effects of trade and suggests how trade, technology, and industrial policies can be used to harness the power of trade to create growth. Furthermore, the results suggest that when trading partners coordinate to design proper policies, all trading partners can benefit. Broader ImpactsThe broader impacts of this work will be felt through its impact on trade policies, and related technology and industrial policies. With nearly every country involved in significant trading relationships, any knowledge that increases the ability of countries to enact trade policies that increase growth will have wide applicability. Once completed, the PI intends to disseminate the results both through academic publication and through channels focused on reaching policymakers.