Doctoral Dissertation Research: Soy, Cattle, and the Amazon Forest

在过去的二十年里，巴西亚马逊地区发生了一场农业革命。亚马逊地区迅速崛起，成为谷物和油籽的重要生产国，现在它们为世界各地的消费者提供对遥远经济体至关重要的植物油和动物饲料。尽管牛肉生产仍然是亚马逊砍伐森林的主要驱动力，但该地区大规模农业的扩大可能对环境造成影响的问题已经出现。本博士论文研究项目将解决这一问题，并考虑大豆生产对区域森林覆盖的影响。博士生将把项目的重点放在两个主要问题上：(1)集约化边缘(大豆生产)的集约化通过什么机制影响非集约化生产战略的扩展，如牧场经营？(2)牧场导致的森林损失在多大程度上与更集约化的农业生产对现有牧场的侵蚀有关？通过回答这些问题，学生将试图确定亚马逊地区的森林砍伐有多少是由大豆种植造成的，既包括对森林的直接侵蚀，也包括被大豆取代后补偿牧场的扩张。他将采用一个基于图尼亚地租理论的概念框架，并考虑随着土地利用相互扩大而出现的级联空间效应，特别是大豆种植对现有牧场的“推动”。他将使用时空回归模型来测试大豆产量的地区扩张与遥远地区牛只数量增加之间的关系。他的统计工作将得到对生产者组织的采访的补充，以确定流离失所的牧场主的目的地，了解与所有权变化相关的生产转移，并更好地了解土地利用动态的行为。该项目旨在充分了解大豆生产的扩大与新牧场开垦造成的森林损失之间的联系。该项目将使人们更好地了解影响亚马逊森林损失的因素。它将审议大豆作为牧场主导的森林砍伐的一个基本因素的作用，并将提供关于发生这一现象的机制的新信息和见解。通过这样做，该项目将揭示大豆和牛之间的联系，这些联系到目前为止基本上是看不见的，被地区土地利用系统隐藏起来。项目成果将对试图在区域经济需求和保护森林覆盖之间取得平衡的政策制定者、管理人员和公众有用。作为博士论文研究改进奖，该奖项还将提供支持，使有前途的学生建立一个强大的独立研究生涯。该项目将根据NSF地理和空间科学项目以及NSF国际科学和工程办公室的美洲项目的联合建议予以支持。

Over the past two decades, an agricultural revolution has occurred in the Brazilian Amazon. Regions within the Amazon have quickly emerged as significant producers of grains and oilseeds, and they now provide consumers across the world with vegetable oils and animal feeds vital to distant economies. Despite the fact that beef production remains the primary driver of Amazonian deforestation, questions have emerged about the potential environmental impact associated with the expansion of large-scale agriculture in the region. This doctoral dissertation research project will address this issue and considers the impact of soybean production on regional forest cover. The doctoral student will focus the project on two principal questions: (1) By what mechanism does intensification at the intensive margin (with soybean production) influence the expansion of less intensive production strategies, such as ranching? (2) To what extent is pasture-led forest loss linked to encroachment by more intensive agricultural production on existing pastures? By answering these questions, the student will seek to ascertain how much Amazonian deforestation is caused by soybean farming, both from direct encroachments into forest and by virtue of compensatory pasture expansion following displacement by soybeans. He will employ a conceptual framework based on an adaptation of Thunian rent theory and considers the cascading spatial effects that emerge as land uses expand on one another, specifically the "pushing" of soybean farming against existing pastures. He will use a spatial-temporal regression model to test the relationship between regional expansion of soybean production and increases in cattle populations at distant locations. His statistical work will be complemented by interviews with producers' organizations in order to ascertain the destination of displaced ranchers, to understand production shifts associated with changes in ownership, and to gain greater behavioral insight into land-use dynamics. The project intends to fully comprehend the linkage between the expansion of soybean production and forest loss attributable to clearings for new pastures.This project will provide a better understand of the factors affecting Amazonian forest loss. It will consider the role of soybeans as an underlying factor of pasture-led deforestation, and it will provide new information and insights regarding the mechanisms through which this occurs. In so doing, the project will bring to light linkages between soybean and cattle that have until now gone largely unseen, hidden by the regional land-use system. Project results will be useful for policy makers, managers, and members of the public who are attempting to strike a balance between regional economic demands and the preservation of the forest cover. As a Doctoral Dissertation Research Improvement award, this award also will provide support to enable a promising student to establish a strong independent research career. This project will be supported based on the joint recommendation of the NSF Geography and Spatial Sciences Program and the Americas Program in the NSF Office of International Science and Engineering.