Studies on Dynamics of ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation) Complexity

厄尔Niño-Southern涛动（ENSO）是一个主要的自然气候变率模式，具有较大的全球影响。尽管取得了重大进展，但一些基本问题仍未得到解答。该项目旨在研究ENSO现象的动力学，包括在时空时间尺度上的丰富变异性。三个主要目标是：(i)研究所谓的中太平洋ENSO的物理机制和导致ENSO多个独立耦合模态的条件；（ii）研究ENSO模式与快速变率之间的尺度相互作用，并研究这些尺度相互作用对耦合ENSO模式的稳定性和可预测性的影响；（iii）研究在耦合气候变化预估（如政府间气候变化专门委员会第四次评估、IPCC AR4模拟）中导致ENSO变率广泛传播的物理机制，以及控制ENSO对与全球变暖相关的热带气候变化响应的潜在机制。这项工作的广泛影响是很高的，因为它有可能提高对ENSO的理解和预测，这是一种对全世界社会产生全球影响的现象。

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a major mode of natural climate variability with large global impacts. Despite major progress, basic questions remain unanswered. This project seeks to examine the dynamics of the ENSO phenomenon, including rich variability on spatio-temporal timescales. The three main objectives are: (i) to investigate the physical mechanisms for the so-called central Pacific ENSO and conditions that lead to multiple independent coupled modes of ENSO; (ii) to investigate scale-interactions between ENSO modes and fast variability and to study the impact of these scale interactions on the stability and predictability of the coupled ENSO modes; and (iii) to investigate the physical mechanisms leading to the great spread of ENSO variability in coupled climate change projections (e.g. the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change Fourth Assessment, IPCC AR4 simulations) and the underlying mechanisms that control ENSO response to tropical climate changes associated with global warming.The broader impact of this work is high since it has the potential to lead to improved understanding and predictions of ENSO, a phenomenon that has global impacts affecting societies world-wide.