Teleconnections: Intraseasonal Dynamics and its Relationship to Interannual and Interdecadal Variability

本项目研究大尺度大气环流的周期性变率的动力学，包括太平洋/北美型、北大西洋涛动和南北半球环模。这些模式，有时被称为遥相关模式，对地球表面的天气和气候有很大的影响，因此有各种重要的影响。本研究有三个目标：(1)研究与远距连接模式相关的基本动力学过程；(2)了解远相关模式对天气至季节内时间尺度大气流量可预测性的影响；3)了解远相关模式对年际至年代际大气变率的影响。使用自组织映射的方法来识别远相关模式，并结合统计技术和理想化的数值模型来理解模式的潜在动力学。这项工作与社会息息相关，因为与远程连接模式相关的天气和气候波动对人类活动和自然世界都很重要。这项工作的结果有可能改善中长期预测，初步结果已经在美国国家海洋和大气管理局的气候预测中心使用。此外，这项工作支持研究生，从而为下一代科学家提供支持和培训。

This project studies the dynamics of the recurrent patterns of variability of the large-scale atmospheric cicrulation, including the Pacific/North American Pattern, the North Atlantic Oscillation, and the Northern and Southern Hemisphere Annular Modes. These patterns, sometimes referred to as teleconnection patterns, have a large influence on weather and climate at the earth's surface and thus have a variety of important impacts. The work has three goals: (1) to investigate the basic dynamical processes associated with teleconnection patterns; (2) to to understand the implications of teleconnection patterns on the predictability of atmospheric flow on synoptic to intraseasonal timescales; and 3) to understand the implications of teleconnection patterns for interannual to decadal atmospheric variability. The method of Self Organizing Maps is used to identify the teleconnection patterns, and a combination of statistical techniques and idealized numerical models will be used to understand the underlying dynamics of the patterns.The work has relevance to society because the weather and climate fluctuations associated with teleconnection patterns are important for human activities and the natural world. The results of the work have the potential to improve medium- to long-range forecasting, and preliminary results are already in use at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center. In addition, the work supports a graduate student, thereby providing support and training to the next generation of scientists.