Collaborative Research: WSC-Category 3: Crops, Climate, Canals and the Cryosphere in Asia - Changing Water Resources around the Earth's Third Pole

合作研究：WSC-类别3：亚洲的作物、气候、运河和冰冻圈：改变地球第三极周围的水资源摘要：该项目综合评估了气候和人为驱动的水文变化对中亚、南亚、东亚和东南亚农业生产和土地利用的影响，以及对未来几十年区域粮食安全和经济福利的影响。它将未来气候预测、遥感和水文数据与水文、地球物理、农业生态系统和经济建模相结合，以描述当地降水、径流、地下水开采、跨流域调水以及农业和非农业用水对该地区水资源供需平衡的相对重要性。 该项目的目标是评估气候变化对高海拔冰雪和永久冻土水文的影响将如何影响下游水资源和粮食生产，并通过对大坝建设和其他大规模水利工程等方面的情景分析。该项目正在评估从亚洲高山（主要是印度河、恒河、雅鲁藏布江、萨尔温江、湄公河、长江、黄河、阿姆河、锡尔河和额尔齐斯河）流出的主要河流流域的现有和预测水资源，特别侧重于气候变化和变异对高地径流的影响。灌溉农业在研究区域很普遍，水资源与粮食供应密切相关。 农业经济支撑着该地区的大多数人口，因此水和粮食资源是该地区经济的关键因素。 该项目将供水和潜在粮食生产与经济模式联系起来，从而能够评估经济中各个作物生产部门的用水、种植密度和产量。该项目正在描述下游水需求和农业生产对人口增加、经济活动扩展和水供应受限的反应，并评估灌溉和作物用水效率的提高、拟议的重大流域间调水项目和水坝建设以及深层地下水枯竭对该区域各经济体粮食安全和贸易的影响。 模拟的不确定性进行评估的敏感性分析驱动的模型参数和农业和水文数据库的不确定性。该项目与研究区域内几个国家的研究人员建立了合作关系，他们正在为获得区域土地和水资源利用的相关数据做出贡献，面对气候变化和人口增长，亚洲的水和粮食安全是一个具有全球重要性的问题。研究区域的大部分地区已经经历了物理或经济水资源短缺，印度和中国都计划进行重大的水工程。这个广泛的跨学科项目（地球科学，农业科学，社会科学）正在量化当代水资源，农业用水和粮食生产，以及未来气候变化对研究区域水和粮食价格的经济后果。 本研究中获得的知识将提高综合评估建模的能力，以说明水资源对未来经济和社会活动的物理限制，以及减缓和适应战略。该项目包括研究生教育培训和本科生研究机会。此外，该项目正在为国家科学基金会赞助的K-12全球变化教育外展计划开发关于亚洲全球变化的学习模块，重点是水和粮食资源以及可持续性。 该项目有助于加强和深化与亚洲研究人员的国际合作。 最后，该项目有助于提高全球变化研究界整合自然科学和社会科学的能力，这对于解决水、气候和可持续性等广泛的跨学科问题至关重要。

Collaborative Research: WSC-Category 3: Crops, climate, canals, and the cryosphere in Asia : changing water resources around the Earth's third poleABSTRACT: This project is generating an integrated assessment of the impacts of climate-, and human-driven changes in hydrology on agricultural production and land use in Central, South, East, and Southeast Asia, and the implications for regional food security and economic welfare in the coming decades. It combines future climate projections, remote sensing and hydrological data together with hydrological, geophysical, agroecosystem and economic modeling to characterize the relative importance of local precipitation, runoff, groundwater mining, interbasin water transfers, and agricultural and non-agricultural water use for the region's water supply-demand balance. The project goal is to estimate how effects of climate change on high-elevation snow, ice, and permafrost hydrology will affect downstream water resources and food production, and through scenario analyses with regard to e.g. dam construction and other large-scale water engineering efforts. The project is assessing current and projected water resources in the watersheds of the major rivers draining from the Asian High Mountains (principally the Indus, Ganges, Brahmaputra, Salween, Mekong, Yangtze, Yellow, Amu Darya, Syr Darya, and Irtysh Rivers), with a particular focus on the climatic change and variability impacts on runoff from the highlands. Irrigated agriculture is widespread in the study region, and water resources are tightly linked to food supplies. Agricultural economies support the majority of the regional population, so water and food resources are a key factor in the regional economy. This project is linking water supply and potential food production to an economic model, enabling assessment of water use, cropping intensity and yields in each of the various crop production sectors of the economy. The project is characterizing the response of downstream water demand and agricultural production to increased population, economic activity expansion and constrained water supplies, and assessing the implications of improvements in irrigation and crop water use efficiency, proposed major interbasin water transfer projects and dam construction, and deep groundwater depletion for food security and trade in the region's economies. Simulation uncertainties are assessed by sensitivity analyses driven by uncertainties in both model parameters and agricultural and hydrological databases. The project has collaborative ties with researchers in several countries in the study region, and they are contributing to efforts to obtain relevant data on regional land and water use.Water and food security in Asia in the face of climate change and rising populations is an issue of global importance. Much of the study region is already experiencing physical or economic water scarcity, and major water engineering works are planned in both India and China. This broadly interdisciplinary project (geosciences, agricultural sciences, social sciences) is quantifying contemporary water resources, water use for agriculture, and food production, and the economic consequences of future climate change on water and food prices in the study region. Knowledge gained in this study will improve the capacity of integrated assessment modeling to account for the physical constraints of water resources on future economic and social activity, and mitigation and adaptation strategies. This project includes graduate student education & training and undergraduate research opportunities. In addition, the project is developing learning modules on global change in Asia, with a focus on water and food resources and sustainability, for an NSF-sponsored K-12 global change education outreach program. The project is contributing to stronger and deeper international collaborations with researchers in Asia. Finally, the project is contributing to the global change research community's capacity to integrate physical and social sciences, which is essential to address the broadly interdisciplinary issue of water, climate, and sustainability.