Short-Term Dynamics in Changing Environments: A Geospatial Analysis of Seasonal Forest Response and Extractive Resource Entitlements at Mt. Kasigau, Kenya

本研究建立在肯尼亚东南部Kasigau山的生态学和民族植物学研究基础上，该地区的森林季节性变化具有陡峭的梯度，从落叶金合欢- commifora丛林到混合山地林地，最后到常绿森林。总体研究的主题是，在这个生态复杂的景观中，对植物群落生物物理变化的局部短期分析应该提供一个敏感的指标，反映与人力资源适应能力动态变化相对应的生计条件。本研究将木本植物产品的提取作为一种重要的资源权利，并将利用实践与植被类型多样性的生态模式和生物物理动力学联系起来，在三个项目目标下：(1)测量生物物理条件下的时空动态；(2)研究环境条件、植被响应与资源开采活动之间的时空关系；(3)整合地理空间测量和短期到长期生态趋势的本地解释以及对这些趋势的生计响应。本研究利用生态野外数据和遥感分析对山地景观植物群落类型和多样性格局进行精细制图。通过集中收集关于森林覆盖、生物物理参数和木本植物提取做法的空间明确数据，该研究测试了不同森林类型如何响应湿度条件下的短期动态，获得了关于资源利用做法如何随短期环境变化而变化的定量和定性措施，并与当地居民共同研究了采掘活动如何在长期内潜在地影响森林资源。预计的研究成果将通过更好地理解热带季节性森林短期生态动态与脆弱景观中当地种群适应能力之间的关系，为应用保护科学做出贡献。降雨的年际和年内变化是影响热带季节性森林和依赖这些资源维持生计的当地居民适应行为的主要环境参数。根据对半干旱的东非的全球气候变化的预测，预计降雨时间、降雨量以及降雨地点的短期变化将更加难以预测。作为一个保护研究项目，本研究考察了“短期”气候变化情景下森林资源和人类生计的脆弱性，在解释资源模式和变化时结合遥感和当地知识，并认识到需要更好地了解当地人口的适应能力并采取行动。这项研究促进了美国和肯尼亚学生之间以及与肯尼亚卡西高山当地居民之间的合作学习机会。本项目由美国国家科学基金会地理与空间科学计划和美国国家科学基金会国际科学与工程办公室共同资助。

This study builds from ecological and ethnobotanical research at Mt. Kasigau, Southeastern Kenya, where there is a steep gradient in seasonal forest change from deciduous Acacia-Commiphora bushland, through mixed montane woodlands, and to evergreen forest. The overall research thesis is that local, short-term analyses of biophysical changes in plant communities across this ecologically complex landscape should provide a sensitive indicator of livelihood conditions that correspond with dynamic changes in human-resource adaptive capacities. The study focuses on the extraction of woody plant products as one important resource entitlement and relates use practices with ecological patterns of diversity in vegetation types and biophysical dynamics under three project objectives to (1) measure spatio-temporal dynamics in biophysical conditions; (2) investigate spatio-temporal relationships between environmental conditions, vegetative response, and resource extractive activities; and (3) integrate geo-spatial measures and local interpretations of short-term to long-term ecological trends and livelihood responses to those trends. The research applies ecological field data and remote sensing analyses to fine-scale mapping of plant community types and patterns of diversity across the montane landscape. By intensively collecting spatially-explicit data on forest cover, biophysical parameters, and woody plant extraction practices, the study tests how different forest types respond to short-term dynamics in moisture conditions, gains quantitative and qualitative measures on how resource-use practices change in relation to short-term environmental change, and jointly examines with local residents how extractive activities potentially influence forest resources over the long term. Projected research outcomes contribute to applied conservation science by better understanding relationships between short-term ecological dynamics in tropical seasonal forests and the adaptive capacities of local populations in vulnerable landscapes. Inter- and intra-annual variations in rainfall are dominant environmental parameters influencing tropical seasonal forests, and the adaptive behaviors of local residents who rely on these resources for their livelihoods. Short-term variations in when the rains will come, how much rain will come, and where the rains will fall are only predicted to be more unpredictable under projections for global climate change in semi-arid East Africa. As a conservation research project, this study examines the vulnerability of forest resources and human livelihoods under "short-term" climate change scenarios, combines remote sensing and local knowledge when interpreting resource patterns and change, and recognizes the need to better understand and act on the adaptive capacities of local populations. The study promotes collaborative learning opportunities between U.S. and Kenyan students, and with local residents at Mt. Kasigau, Kenya. This project is jointly supported by the NSF Geography and Spatial Sciences Program and the NSF Office of International Science and Engineering.