Modelling climate change impacts on crop growth and yield quality based on explicit simulation of plant internal transport processes

气候因素平均值的预测变化（大气CO2浓度增加、温度升高、降水模式改变）和气候变异性的预测变化（酷热期和霜冻期、干旱、洪水和风暴等极端气候的频率、持续时间和程度）将影响农作物的产量和质量。虽然许多这些气候因素对农作物初级生产的影响已经调查，很少有人知道的影响植物生物量的化学成分。关于如何模拟和模拟气候对植物内部运输和化学品转化过程的影响（即，宏量和微量营养素、糖、淀粉、酚类物质），其决定作物质量参数（例如，谷物的碳氮比（C/N）。这种过程知识对于预测未来作物产量的质量是必要的。因此，该项目将在改进的叶片光合作用和资源分配动态子模型的基础上开发和测试新的作物生长模型。进一步模型开发的重点将是工厂内部流体动力学和溶质运移。新的子模型将扩展作为农业生态系统模型Expert-N一部分的单株植物生长模型PLATHO和冠层作物模型CERES、SPASS、SUCROS和GECROS。

Predicted changes in average values of climate factors (increased atmospheric CO2 concentration, increased temperature, altered precipitation patterns) and predicted changes in climatic variability (frequencies, duration and degree of climatic extremes such as heat and frost periods, droughts, floods and storms) will impact on the yield and quality of agricultural crops. Whereas effects of many of these climatic factors on primary production of agricultural crops have been investigated, little is known about the impact on the chemical composition of plant biomass. Even less is known about how to model and simulate climatic effects on the plant internal transport and transformation processes of chemicals (i.e., macro- and micro-nutrients, sugars, starch, phenolics) that determine crop quality parameters (e.g., carbon to nitrogen (C/N) ratio of grains). Such process knowledge is necessary to predict the quality of future crop yields. The project, therefore, will develop and test a new crop growth model based on improved sub-models of leaf photosynthesis and resource allocation dynamics. The focus of further model development will be on the plant internal hydro-dynamics and solute transport. The new sub-models will extend the single plant growth model PLATHO and the canopy crop models CERES, SPASS, SUCROS, and GECROS that are part of the agro-ecosystem model Expert-N.