Collaborative Research: Linking sea-ice retreat to plankton community structure and function in the Bering Sea: Data synthesis, biophysical modeling, and multi-decadal projection

提供资金用于使用BEST/BSIERP 2007-2010年实地计划期间收集的多样化和全面的数据集，以仔细构建和参数化一个新的系统和生命阶段特定的生物物理模型。π吗?该方法与传统的NPZ型生态系统建模不同，因为它包含了特定生命阶段的浮游动物成分，并将使他们能够更好地理解环境变化对浮游生物物候和碳循环的影响。他们将关注海冰出现或消退的春季条件，以了解浮游生物生态系统不同组成部分之间的联系和功能关系，并了解浮游动物生活史与海冰的时间和范围以及水柱分层的相互作用。在分布稀疏、有库存的加工站测量的生物速率过程的综合，以及从分布广泛的调查站获得的物理和化学数据，将确定哪些成分和过程在控制系统的结构和功能方面是最重要的，并将独立地得出基于数据的机械综合，模型的内部途径可以据此进行测试。他们将使用基于模型的情景测试来检查预测的未来环境条件的变化，特别是海冰，如何影响浮游生态系统的结构和功能，并确定这种生态系统反应最敏感的关键营养和生理机制。白令海东部海冰覆盖的时间和范围影响浮游生物生产的时间、浮游动物的组成和丰度，并最终影响上层营养水平的食物供应，包括商业上重要的鱼类，如鳕鱼。pi建议对持续的气候变化对这种浮游生态系统的潜在影响有更深入的了解。具体来说，他们的问题是：气候变化、预期的季节性海冰提前消退、水温升高和海冰范围缩小，将如何改变春季浮游生物食物网的结构和功能，从而改变白令海藻类生产的最终命运、碳的利用和循环、浮游动物的生产和可用性，作为营养上层的猎物，包括商业上重要的鱼类？

Funds are provided to use the diverse and comprehensive dataset collected during the BEST/BSIERP field program of 2007-2010 to carefully structure and parameterize a new, system- and life-stage specific biophysical model. The PIs? approach differs from traditional NPZ type ecosystem modeling because of the inclusion of life-stage specific zooplankton components and will permit them to better understand the impact of the changing environment on plankton phenologies and on carbon cycling. They will focus on spring conditions, when sea ice is present or retreating, to understand the linkages and functional relationships between different components of the plankton ecosystem and to understand the interaction of zooplankton life histories with the timing and extent of sea ice and stratification of the water column. Syntheses of biological rate processes measured at sparsely distributed process stations with standing stocks and physical and chemical data from the broadly distributed survey stations will identify which components and processes are most important in controlling the structure and function of the system and will independently derive a data-based mechanistic synthesis against which the model's internal pathways can be tested. They will use model-based scenario testing to examine how projected future change in environmental conditions, especially sea ice, may impact planktonic ecosystem structure and function, and to identify the key trophic and physiological mechanisms to which this ecosystem response is most sensitive.The timing and extent of sea ice cover in the eastern Bering Sea influence the timing of plankton production, the composition and abundance of the zooplankton, and ultimately the availability of food for upper trophic levels including commercially important fish species such as pollock. The PIs propose to gain a greater understanding of the potential impact of ongoing climate change on this planktonic ecosystem. Specifically, they ask: How will climate change, and the anticipated earlier retreat in seasonal sea ice, warmer water temperatures, and reduced sea ice extent alter the structure and function of the planktonic food web during spring, and thus the ultimate fate of algal production in the Bering Sea, the utilization and cycling of carbon, and the production and availability of zooplankton as prey for upper trophic levels, including commercially important fish species?